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Bitcoin may be entering one of its most promising macro phases since the early COVID-19 period, according to André Dragosch, head of research for Bitwise Europe. In a recent post on X, Dragosch compared the current market environment to March 2020 — a moment when fear dominated global markets and Bitcoin briefly fell below $5,000 before launching into one of its strongest multi-year rallies.
Dragosch noted that Bitcoin’s price today appears misaligned with the broader economic backdrop, creating an “asymmetric risk-reward” scenario similar to the early stages of the pandemic. He argued that despite short-term weakness, Bitcoin has likely priced in much of the negative macroeconomic pressure, positioning the asset for potential upside once global conditions stabilize.
Bitcoin Is Pricing in a Recession
According to Dragosch, Bitcoin is behaving as if the global economy is on the edge of a recession. He believes current prices already reflect “the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022,” a period marked by tight monetary policy, aggressive rate hikes, and the fallout from major corporate collapses in the crypto sector.
Bitcoin’s performance has also disappointed many traders in recent weeks. After reaching a new all-time high of $125,100 on Oct. 5, the asset quickly fell into a downtrend triggered by a $19 billion liquidation wave. Market sentiment weakened further when Bitcoin slipped below the key $100,000 threshold in mid-November, breaking psychological support levels and signaling heightened uncertainty.
However, Dragosch emphasized that economic data suggests a different story. He believes global growth is starting to recover, fueled by monetary stimulus from previous quarters. If this trend continues, the impact could extend into 2026, similar to the post-pandemic economic rebound. “We’re staring at a similar macro setup right now,” he said, hinting that Bitcoin may be significantly undervalued relative to forward expectations.
Market Volatility Shakes Investor Confidence
Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has dropped more than 17%, according to CoinMarketCap data. This correction has erased a large portion of the gains accumulated earlier in the year. The decline deepened after the introduction of new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, which added uncertainty across financial markets.
By Nov. 20, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $90,000 before bouncing back, restoring some market optimism. Still, analysts say the asset needs to reclaim major price levels before confidence fully returns.
Despite the volatility, Dragosch argues that the asset is behaving exactly as it did during previous macro cycles, where negative sentiment created unusually favorable long-term conditions. He said Bitcoin appears to have already absorbed much of the downside risk, suggesting limited room for further decline unless major economic shocks occur.
Analysts Debate Whether Bitcoin Is Entering a New Bear Cycle
While some fear that the recent sell-off could mark the beginning of a prolonged bearish phase, several analysts strongly disagree.
Crypto trader Alessio Rastani recently said that the latest downturn fits a recurring historical pattern that often precedes strong rallies. According to Rastani, past cycles with similar setups have produced upward movements roughly 75% of the time. He believes the market remains within a broader bullish structure, despite the recent turbulence.
Tom Lee, chair of BitMine, expressed a similar outlook during a mid-week interview. Lee said he remains confident that Bitcoin will reclaim $100,000 before the year ends and could even approach new all-time highs if global demand strengthens.
These views align with Dragosch’s assessment that Bitcoin’s price may be lagging behind improving economic fundamentals. If global growth accelerates in 2026, as he expects, Bitcoin could benefit from increased liquidity, stronger risk appetite, and a healthier macro environment.
What Comes Next for Bitcoin?
Analysts are now watching several key indicators that could determine Bitcoin’s short-term direction. The first is whether the asset can sustain a move back above $100,000. Reclaiming this level may signal renewed confidence and reduce the likelihood of prolonged downside pressure.
Another factor is the broader economic narrative. If recession fears continue to fade and global markets stabilize, Bitcoin may regain momentum faster than expected. Many analysts, including Dragosch, argue that Bitcoin’s muted reaction to positive macro trends is temporary and could reverse sharply once sentiment improves.
Overall, the consensus emerging from analysts is that the current risk-reward profile favors long-term optimism. While volatility may persist, Bitcoin appears to be entering a phase where downside risks are limited compared to its potential upside — a dynamic last seen during the COVID-19 crash.
