Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable price surge, briefly testing $97,000 on May 7, 2025, following news of planned U.S.-China trade talks. This rally has fueled speculation about the potential impact of these talks on Bitcoin’s future price movements, with many analysts wondering whether a breakthrough could propel BTC to the coveted $100,000 mark.

U.S.-China Talks and Bitcoin’s Price Surge

The recent uptick in Bitcoin’s price comes just ahead of a crucial trade meeting between the United States and China in Switzerland. The U.S. Treasury Department confirmed that Secretary Scott Bessent would meet with China’s lead representative on economic matters, Vice Premier He Lifeng, to discuss ongoing trade tensions and tariffs between the two economic giants. The outcome of these talks is highly anticipated as the U.S. and China have been locked in a trade war for months, significantly impacting global markets, including the cryptocurrency sector.

Bitcoin, which had been facing a turbulent period due to macroeconomic factors, briefly reached $97,000 on Tuesday after the statement. The ongoing trade issues, particularly the increase in tariffs from both sides, had previously triggered a significant price drop in BTC, with the asset falling from a high of $88,000 to a low of $74,500 in recent weeks. However, the statement of the U.S.-China talks provided some relief to the market, pushing Bitcoin higher.

The Role of Macro Factors in Bitcoin’s Performance

The trade standoff between the U.S. and China has been a key macroeconomic factor influencing Bitcoin’s price movements over the past few months. In April, President Donald Trump imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, and in retaliation, China placed 125% tariffs on U.S. goods. This trade war created a significant amount of uncertainty, which had a destabilizing effect on global markets, including Bitcoin.

For Bitcoin, this macroeconomic instability led to a sharp decline in its price, dropping from $88,000 to $74,500 by late April. However, as the possibility of a tariff resolution began to emerge, Bitcoin’s price stabilized and started to recover. The rally from late April to early May, where BTC surged from $74,000 to nearly $96,000, was partly fueled by growing optimism around the potential for a resolution to the trade dispute.

Will U.S.-China Trade Talks Push Bitcoin to $100K?

The U.S.-China talks, set to take place from May 9 to May 12, 2025, represent a critical juncture for both the global economy and Bitcoin. If the talks lead to a breakthrough or positive developments, it could result in further bullish momentum for Bitcoin. Investors are closely watching these discussions as any progress in resolving the tariff dispute could help stabilize global markets and potentially drive Bitcoin’s price to new heights.

Bitcoin’s recent surge in response to the trade talks suggests that the market is reacting positively to the potential for macroeconomic relief. However, there is some caution in the air, as not all market participants are convinced that a resolution will come quickly. As of the time of writing, the prediction site Polymarket indicated a less than 30% chance of a U.S.-China trade deal being reached by June 2025. This reflects the market’s skepticism about a quick resolution, despite the optimism surrounding the talks.

Options Market and Bullish Sentiment

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the U.S.-China trade talks, the options market is showing bullish sentiment for Bitcoin. Traders have been heavily buying call options, betting that Bitcoin’s price will continue to rise. The 25-Delta Risk Reversal (25RR) for Bitcoin options expiring in May and June indicates that traders are expecting a further rally, with some even pricing in a 16% chance of BTC reaching $110,000 by the end of May. The odds of Bitcoin hitting this target increase to 28% by June, according to market data from Deribit.

This bullish sentiment in the options market suggests that many investors are optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential to break past its current resistance levels and continue its upward trajectory. However, it is essential to note that any negative developments from the U.S.-China trade talks could have the opposite effect, causing Bitcoin to pull back from its recent highs.

Monitoring the Outcome of the Talks

As the U.S.-China talks unfold, Bitcoin investors will be keenly watching for any signs of a breakthrough or positive macroeconomic news that could fuel further price gains. A resolution to the trade dispute would likely provide the relief the market has been waiting for, and could potentially push Bitcoin toward its $100,000 target. However, it is crucial to remain cautious, as the market remains volatile and sensitive to geopolitical events.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s recent price surge has been driven by growing optimism surrounding the U.S.-China trade talks, but the path ahead remains uncertain. If the talks lead to a positive outcome, Bitcoin could see further upward momentum, potentially reaching the $100,000 mark. However, any negative news could also cause a price correction, making it essential for investors to stay alert and monitor the situation closely.