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Bitcoin is going in circles. The week closed at $86,530 — the highest weekly close since January — but the $87,000 threshold remains unbroken. Four failed attempts since September 21. Four times hitting the same wall.
Why It Matters
Breaking through the $87,000 resistance is crucial for Bitcoin as it could signal renewed bullish momentum and attract more institutional interest, especially given the heightened market activity following recent price highs. The inability to maintain this level after multiple attempts may lead to increased volatility, as traders reassess their positions and strategies. Additionally, the established support at $82,500 indicates a potential floor that could provide stability, but persistent resistance at $87,000 could challenge market sentiment in the near term.
On Monday morning, in Asia, Bitcoin touched $87,000 at the start of the session before sliding back to $86,000 in the following hours. No panic, no collapse either. Just a resistance that refuses to budge. The support at $82,500 remains intact, and the market seems stuck between these two levels without a clear signal in either direction. On-chain data shows a reduction in buying activity since mid-September. Long-term holders are selling, but not chaotically. Nothing resembling capitulation.
No immediate reversal in sight.
Bond Yields Crush Demand
U.S. yields are near their highest levels since 2002. This is the real issue for Bitcoin right now. When bonds offer such returns, institutional investors have less reason to turn to an asset that offers neither interest nor dividends. The strong dollar worsens the situation — it weighs on all risky assets, including Bitcoin.
The U.S. employment report gave a temporary boost to the market. Only 29,000 jobs created in September, compared to the 90,000 expected. This figure reduced expectations of a Fed rate hike in October. But the effect didn’t last. Concerns about inflation and the bond market’s ability to absorb new debt issues quickly resurfaced. Essentially, a good number for Bitcoin in the short term, but not enough to change the underlying dynamics.
The upcoming ten-year bond auction will be closely watched.
Investors remain nervous about bond markets. And when bonds move, Bitcoin moves too — not always in the right direction.
Derivative Markets and Critical Liquidation Zones
There are two levels that really matter in the derivatives markets right now: $83,700 and $87,570, the annual level. These zones concentrate significant liquidity. When leveraged positions are liquidated around these thresholds, it can generate sharp and rapid movements in the price.
A move above $87,000 would likely force short sellers to cover their positions — known as a short squeeze. This could mechanically accelerate the rise. Conversely, a drop towards $83,700 would weaken the most exposed bullish positions. Both scenarios are on the table. It’s not yet clear which will prevail.
These market mechanisms make predictions more complicated than they seem. Bitcoin doesn’t only react to macro fundamentals — it also reacts to the internal structure of the derivative market, cascading liquidations, and levels where orders accumulate. And here, the two identified zones are close.
The Fed at the Center of Everything
The minutes from the Fed’s September meeting are expected on October 7. These documents will provide a clearer idea of the envisioned rate path, and especially how the central bank perceives the so-called “neutral” level of interest rates. For the markets, this is crucial. A hawkish tone in these minutes — even subtle — could weigh on Bitcoin.
On October 14, inflation figures are due. If inflation rises again, expectations of monetary tightening will strengthen, and the pressure on risky assets will increase. Bitcoin has already shown its sensitivity to this type of data in recent months. That shouldn’t change.
For Bitcoin to confirm a sustainable recovery, it must turn $87,000 into support — not just touch it and fall back. And maintain $82,500 as a fallback floor. Two conditions. Neither is currently met.
The instability of bond markets, a dollar that remains strong, on-chain activity declining since mid-September, and macro data arriving one after another — the context remains heavy. Bitcoin holds. But holding is not the same as advancing.
The employment report was not enough. The 29,000 jobs created in September reduced expectations of a hike in October, yes. But concerns about inflation persist, and the bond market remains under pressure. Two busy weeks ahead.
Hub: Bitcoin: Price, News, and Analysis
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Bitcoin failing to surpass $87,000 since late September?
Since September 21, Bitcoin has attempted four times to break this threshold without success. The rise in U.S. bond yields, near their highest levels since 2002, and a decline in buying pressure since mid-September are blocking progress.
What levels should be monitored in the derivatives markets?
The zones of $83,700 and $87,570 concentrate significant liquidity. Liquidations of leveraged positions around these thresholds could generate sharp movements in both directions.
What impact do U.S. economic data have on Bitcoin?
The September employment report, with only 29,000 jobs created against 90,000 expected, temporarily reduced rate hike expectations. The Fed minutes on October 7 and the inflation figures on October 14 are the next major catalysts.
