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Bitcoin (BTC) has reclaimed the $115,000 level following a sharp weekend drop that wiped out over $1 billion in leveraged positions. After briefly testing $113,000, the leading cryptocurrency is showing signs of recovery as institutional flows and ETF data begin to shift sentiment back toward cautious optimism.
The recent selloff marked the third straight Friday correction, triggered by softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data and renewed tariff risks. This mix of macroeconomic uncertainty weighed heavily on risk assets, sending both equities and crypto into retreat.
Despite this volatility, some analysts view the correction not as a bearish reversal but as a typical “leverage flush”—a painful yet historically constructive event that clears excess leverage from the system. QCP Capital, in a Monday report, highlighted Bitcoin’s record-high monthly close in July as evidence that the long-term bullish structure remains intact.
Liquidation Shock Clears the Deck
Over $1 billion in long positions were liquidated last week, intensifying fears among retail traders. Altcoins saw an even steeper fall, with Solana (SOL) tumbling 20% and Ethereum (ETH) dropping 10% in just a few days. But such sharp corrections often pave the way for new institutional positioning.
“This was a necessary reset,” noted QCP Capital. “Leverage across the market had built up unsustainably, and the selloff has now created a cleaner setup for renewed upside.”
ETF Inflows Offer a Glimmer of Hope
ETF flow data could be the next major market catalyst. Early signs are already encouraging: Bitwise reported $18.74 million in net inflows on Monday, a potential reversal from Friday’s heavy outflows—the largest in weeks. If this trend continues, it could restore confidence among both institutions and retail investors.
Historically, consistent ETF inflows have helped support price rebounds by signaling sustained institutional demand. With implied volatility still elevated, compression in that metric paired with strong inflows could trigger a broader rally and support the “buy-the-dip” narrative.
Market Still Prices in Risk
Despite the rebound, hedging activity shows that investors remain wary. On Polymarket, traders currently assign a 49% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $100,000 by the end of 2025—a modest increase from the day prior. This shows the market hasn’t fully shaken off near-term uncertainty.
Investors continue to price in tail risks, even as fundamentals grow stronger. Regulatory clarity is improving, stablecoin use is expanding, and tokenization of real-world assets is gaining momentum globally—all factors that support Bitcoin’s long-term case.
Still, traders are watching closely for further ETF inflow confirmation and signs that volatility is beginning to subside. Without this, confidence could remain fragile heading into the next macro data releases.
Broader Market Recap
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Bitcoin (BTC): Trading above $115,000 after a sharp weekend recovery. Eyes now turn to ETF inflow reports as a potential driver of continued upside.
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Ethereum (ETH): Holding near $3,700. Traders on Polymarket show high confidence it could break above $4,000 in August.
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Gold: Extended gains for a third straight session, rising to a two-week high as weak U.S. data boosted expectations of a September Fed rate cut.
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Nikkei 225: Opened higher, gaining 0.54% after tariff-related headlines impacted regional trade expectations.
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S&P 500: Jumped 1.47% to 6,329.94, snapping a four-day losing streak and posting its best single-day performance since May.
Looking Ahead
The next 24 hours will be crucial for gauging whether Bitcoin’s bounce has legs. If ETF inflows remain strong and macro conditions stabilize, BTC could break out of its recent consolidation range. Conversely, if volatility returns or flows disappoint, another test of key support levels is possible.
For now, the market appears to be cautiously rebalancing—resetting from overextended leverage while watching for fresh signs of institutional conviction. The coming week may determine whether Bitcoin’s rebound above $115K is the beginning of a new uptrend or just a temporary pause in a deeper correction.
