Bitcoin tests $80,000 support as Cowen flags bearish 2026 path

Bitcoin is testing the $80,000 support level after failing to maintain the $83,000 threshold, creating a critical juncture for the asset ahead of the weekend close. Analyst Benjamin Cowen stated that a weekly close below $83,000 on October 25 would strengthen his bearish outlook for the remainder of 2026. This technical warning coincides with significant pressure from macroeconomic factors, including upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and inflation data releases.

Technical Levels and Corporate Exposure

The recent market volatility has resulted in substantial liquidations for bullish traders. During a four-hour selloff, long positions accounted for $91.19 million of the total $95.22 million in crypto liquidations. Beyond immediate trading positions, the $80,000 level holds specific significance for corporate treasuries. Glassnode estimates that companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets paid an average of $80,000 per coin. If the price falls below this mark, the average corporate treasury position would move into a loss. While this does not automatically force companies to sell, it could weaken market confidence in the asset’s stability.

Technical analysis suggests further downside potential if selling pressure persists. A separate analysis identifies $77,876 as the next downside level, followed by a broader support zone between approximately $76,700 and $72,500. Institutional flows have also shown signs of weakness, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs losing approximately $322 million on October 22.

Macroeconomic Calendar and Historical Context

The upcoming economic calendar presents several potential catalysts for further volatility. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on October 27 and 28, with Cowen expecting interest rates to remain unchanged. Following the Fed meeting, September inflation data (PCE) is set for release on October 29. Cowen outlined a specific sequence of events that would validate his bearish scenario: a weekly close below $83,000, a confirmed fakeout on October 25, the Fed not raising rates on October 28, hot PCE data on October 29, and a spike in oil prices over $120 due to the Iran war. This scenario becomes void if Bitcoin recovers and holds above $83,000.

Energy prices add another layer of complexity to the macro environment. Brent crude oil settled at $116.72 on Friday amid intensified Middle East supply fears. High energy costs could keep inflation elevated, while rising Treasury yields may make speculative investments less attractive. Historical data provides additional context for the current bearish sentiment. Binance Research reports that Bitcoin’s average decline during previous US midterm election years is 56%. However, this statistic covers only three Bitcoin cycles, limiting its reliability as a predictive tool. The immediate test for Bitcoin is whether buyers can defend the $80,000 level. A sustained recovery above $83,000 would weaken the bearish case, while losing $80,000 could expose the asset to further selling ahead of the November US midterm elections.