Community Trust ScoreVerified
President Donald Trump stated that the United States could strike Iran as soon as Sunday, or reach a deal instead. Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $80,546 on Saturday after briefly dipping below the $80,000 threshold. The price action follows a period of heightened volatility linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Historical Price Reactions to Iran Headlines
Market data from previous geopolitical events provides a reference point for current price movements. On October 8, Trump pledged to hold off on strikes until the November 3 midterms. According to TradingView data for Binance, Bitcoin dipped to $80,393 that day but closed at $81,754. The pledge did not result in a lasting rally.
On October 22, reports emerged regarding post-midterm US and Israeli strike plans. Bitcoin fell from a high of $84,898 on October 21 to a low of $80,939 on October 22, closing the day at $81,416. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lost $635.49 million on October 22, following a gain of $528.40 million the previous day. Escalation headlines have historically cut Bitcoin by 2% to 5% intraday.
Liquidations and Institutional Cost Basis
As talk of a weekend strike built, Bitcoin fell to $79,220 on Saturday before recovering to close at $80,888. CoinGlass data indicates that $543.68 million in positions were liquidated over a 24-hour period, with long positions accounting for $461.19 million of that total. Leveraged long positions absorbed the majority of the losses near the $80,000 level.
Glassnode places the cost basis of ETF and treasury-company investors between $80,000 and $81,500. A daily close below $80,000 would leave the average holder at a loss according to the firm. Such a move would also bring the True Market Mean, currently near $77,600, into view. Bitcoin trades through the weekend, meaning it would likely absorb the initial market reaction to any strike before traditional markets reopen.
Broader Market Correlations
Past strikes offer a mixed guide for price direction. When the war began on February 28, Bitcoin fell to $63,030 but closed the day at $66,973. After strikes in early September, Bitcoin dipped to $76,264 before jumping 5.08% on September 3. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s correlation with gold set an eight-year record in September and remains near that level. Bitcoin’s correlation with the US dollar is among its most negative, suggesting that a rush into the dollar could weigh on both assets.
Brent oil stood at $117.30 on Friday. A strike could push oil prices higher before the Federal Reserve decides on policy on October 28. A deal could cool inflation worries, though the October 8 pledge showed that relief-driven rallies can be modest. Bitcoin’s response to these headlines remains the primary signal to watch this weekend.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Bitcoin’s current price relative to the $80,000 level?
Bitcoin traded at $80,546 on Saturday after briefly dipping below $80,000. The price recovered to close the day at $80,888.
What is the cost basis for ETF and treasury-company investors?
Glassnode places the cost basis of ETF and treasury-company investors between $80,000 and $81,500. A daily close below $80,000 would leave the average holder at a loss.
