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Bitcoin is staring at a wall. Glassnode put $87,700 as the key resistance level in its latest on-chain assessment, with $81,500 flagged as the breakeven price for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs sitting below as a support marker.
Why It Matters
Why it matters: The setup highlights where supply may become more willing to sell and where buyers may need to defend momentum, making these levels important for short-term price discovery. It also underscores how closely on-chain cost basis and ETF-related positioning can shape market behavior, especially when traders are watching for either a breakout through resistance or a loss of support.
The $87,700 figure isn’t arbitrary. It represents the average cost basis for holders who bought BTC somewhere between six and 12 months ago. Those investors are basically flat — or just crawling back to breakeven — and history says a chunk of them will sell when prices revisit their entry point. That’s the supply problem Bitcoin faces right now. Add a second group: holders who bought one to two years earlier, carrying a cost basis of $99,500. Two separate ceilings, two separate pools of potential sellers. Neither is a guarantee, but both matter.
Worth noting: these are reference points, not walls built from concrete.
How Past Rallies Hit These Levels and Stalled
The price history around these levels is pretty instructive. Back in November 2025, Bitcoin broke below $94,000 — the breakeven for the six-to-12-month holder group at that time. A rally came in January 2026 and pushed the price up to $97,100. Then the market pulled back. That’s the pattern Glassnode keeps coming back to: a recovery that reaches the cost basis of a big holder cohort, then stalls as those holders grab the exit.
After that January rally topped out, Bitcoin didn’t just drift lower. It lost more than a third of its value. That’s a steep drop for what looked like a recovery attempt.
The one-to-two-year holder group has its own version of the same story. Their average purchase price was listed at $76,900 during a February market decline — meaning that group had gone underwater. By May, Bitcoin climbed just above $82,000, brushing up against the cost-basis level for that cohort. The recovery slowed. Following that move, Bitcoin fell by about a quarter.
And in early October, Glassnode saw the older group — the one-to-two-year holders — step up sales during a recovery attempt. Same behavior, different month. The $99,500 level for that group isn’t presented as a certain ceiling, but the selling activity near cost basis keeps showing up in the data.
The core logic is straightforward. Buyers have to absorb whatever sellers throw at the market near those breakeven levels. If demand is strong enough, prices push through. If it’s not, the advance stalls and sellers win the tug-of-war. Glassnode says buyer demand will be the deciding factor as Bitcoin approaches the identified levels.
The $87,000 Zone Is Crowded With Markers
Here’s where it gets more interesting. The $87,700 cost basis doesn’t stand alone. Bitcoin’s 2026 opening price sits at $87,490. Its 20-month simple moving average is $87,165. Three separate measures, all clustering in the same narrow band around $87,000.
That’s a lot of technical and on-chain weight concentrated in one zone. A clean break above it could ease pressure from the six-to-12-month holder group — those investors would be in profit, less motivated to sell. A failure to clear the zone probably means more supply from that same group, capping any rally.
The $99,500 level for the older cohort sits well above the cluster. It’s a separate problem for a later date — if Bitcoin ever gets there. For now, the $87,000 zone is the more immediate test.
It’s also worth keeping the two groups distinct. Six-to-12-month holders: $87,700 cost basis, right on top of the 2026 open and the moving average. One-to-two-year holders: $99,500 now, after carrying a $76,900 average purchase price during the February decline. Different histories, different pressure points.
Support Levels Below $82,000
Below the resistance cluster, Glassnode maps out several support levels that could matter if Bitcoin turns lower.
The $81,500 figure is the breakeven price for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs — basically the average cost of capital sitting in those products. It’s just above the $80,000 mark, which Glassnode identifies as a support area drawing on both order book data and on-chain information. A break below $80,000, per the analysis, could trigger liquidations just beneath that level. Those liquidations would add more selling pressure on top of whatever organic selling is already happening. The analysis makes that scenario conditional — it needs a breach of the zone to kick off — but the risk is there.
Drop further and you hit $77,500. That’s the market’s realized average breakeven price, representing what buyers on secondary markets paid for their BTC on average. Below that is the short-term holder breakeven at $74,600 — the lowest rung in Glassnode’s support map.
Four levels, each with a different meaning. The ETF breakeven at $81,500 reflects institutional money. The $77,500 figure is the broader market average. The $74,600 threshold is where short-term traders start bleeding.
None of them are guaranteed floors. Glassnode doesn’t claim that each level will stop a decline — just that they’re places where buyer behavior may shift.
The near-term picture Glassnode lays out is fairly clear in structure, murky in outcome. Resistance clusters around $87,000, with a harder ceiling near $99,500 for the older holder group. Support sits in a band from $81,500 down to $74,600, with the ETF breakeven as the first real test.
The analysis doesn’t put a timeline on any of it. No call on when Bitcoin tests the $87,700 level or whether it holds $81,500. The whole assessment hinges on how buyers respond and how much selling pressure the cost-basis holders actually generate when prices get close.
Short-term holder breakeven: $74,600.
Frequently Asked Questions
What resistance level does Glassnode identify for Bitcoin?
Glassnode puts $87,700 as the cost basis for holders who bought Bitcoin six to 12 months ago, and $99,500 as the cost basis for holders who bought one to two years earlier — both act as potential resistance levels.
Where does Glassnode place Bitcoin support?
Glassnode identifies $81,500 as the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF breakeven, $80,000 as a nearby support zone, $77,500 as the market’s realized average breakeven, and $74,600 as the short-term holder breakeven.
