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Bitcoin has entered a phase of price consolidation after reaching a new all-time high of $123,000 earlier this year. The digital asset has since retraced to around $117,000, raising questions about whether the recent rally is nearing exhaustion. Despite the sideways action, some market analysts argue that this is not the end but merely a pause before the next leg higher.
According to well-known trader and crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader, Bitcoin is far from reaching its cycle top. Instead, he believes the market is currently staging what he refers to as its “final act” — the last bullish phase before a significant correction occurs. His argument is built on Bitcoin’s historical price cycles, specifically the well-known four-year cycle that has defined previous bull runs.
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Still Intact
Much of the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s future price action stems from its four-year cycle, which revolves around the halving events that occur approximately every four years. During each halving, the number of new Bitcoins generated per block is cut in half, reducing the rate of new supply entering the market. Historically, these events have preceded major bull runs, often resulting in parabolic price increases roughly 12 to 18 months after the halving takes place.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin broke records by hitting a new all-time high before the most recent halving — a phenomenon not seen in previous cycles. This led to speculation that the four-year cycle may no longer apply. However, Merlijn argues that despite this deviation, the overall structure remains intact.
He points out that in past cycles, Bitcoin tends to decline for one year, followed by a three-year uptrend. According to his analysis, the crypto market is now in the second year of that uptrend, with another full year potentially remaining before a long-term top is reached. If this pattern continues, 2025 could mark the peak of this cycle.
Room for Growth Before a Top Is In
One of the strongest points in Merlijn’s analysis is that Bitcoin has yet to reach the typical levels that signal a market top. In previous cycles, Bitcoin’s price has surged to three times the value of its prior all-time high. For instance, after topping at $20,000 in 2017, the next peak in 2021 hit around $69,000—roughly 3.5x higher.
Using this historical multiple as a reference, the current cycle could see Bitcoin approaching or exceeding $200,000 before the market enters a prolonged downturn. At $123,000, the price has not yet even doubled from its 2021 high, suggesting more room to climb.
Merlijn’s chart shows Bitcoin currently positioned in the middle of what he calls the “final box” — a price range that historically precedes the last parabolic push of a bull run. The top of this box sits around the $200,000 mark, aligning with previous cycle extensions.
Why Bitcoin’s Rally May Resume Soon
Despite Bitcoin’s current sideways movement, there are still reasons to be optimistic about a potential rally in the months ahead. One key factor is the growing institutional interest in the asset. With several Bitcoin ETFs now trading in the United States, exposure to Bitcoin is more accessible than ever for both retail and professional investors.
Additionally, the macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly favorable for digital assets. As inflation remains persistent and central banks show signs of shifting away from aggressive rate hikes, investors may look to Bitcoin as a hedge or alternative store of value.
Furthermore, the supply side dynamics remain tight. The most recent halving has reduced new supply by 50%, and long-term holders appear to be accumulating rather than selling. This sets the stage for a potential supply squeeze if demand continues to rise.
What Comes After $200K
While the $200,000 price target may sound ambitious, especially with current prices trading near $117,000, the crypto market has a history of surprising investors with its speed and volatility. If Bitcoin follows previous patterns, the move to $200K could occur rapidly once momentum returns.
However, traders should also be cautious. Historically, after Bitcoin reaches its peak, sharp corrections follow. In the past, declines of 70% or more have occurred within months of hitting cycle tops. Therefore, while upside potential remains, so does the risk of significant losses if timing is off.
Conclusion
Bitcoin may be in a period of rest, but seasoned market observers like Merlijn The Trader believe the show isn’t over yet. With the four-year cycle still in play and historical trends suggesting a final surge ahead, Bitcoin could still have significant upside before this bull market ends.
For investors and traders, the coming months could be decisive. If Bitcoin breaks out from its current range and begins another rally, it could pave the way to new highs — possibly even reaching the much-discussed $200,000 level before entering its next major correction.
