Bitcoin has entered a cooling phase after weeks of steady gains, yet signs from long-term holders and institutional flows suggest that the $100,000 support level could prove critical in shaping the next major move. While short-term volatility continues and price momentum has stalled, a deeper look into on-chain metrics reveals that bulls still have a fighting chance—as long as Bitcoin stays above the six-figure mark.

A Temporary Stall or Something Deeper?

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin [BTC] briefly dipped to $104,000 on two occasions before bouncing back to trade around $104,600. This price action fits within the framework of a cooling market, though not one undergoing a full correction—at least not yet.

Market analysts describe the current environment as “neutral but fragile,” with institutional short interest quietly growing. One sign of this pressure is the widening gap between spot and perpetual futures pricing, suggesting that leveraged positions are leaning more cautiously.

Despite these warning signs, the crucial $102,500–$100,000 support zone continues to hold. Bulls are defending this range closely, viewing it as the last major level before confidence begins to unwind.

The $100K Level: More Than Just a Round Number

Psychologically, $100,000 is a powerful level for Bitcoin. It’s not just a technical floor but a symbolic one—representing the coin’s resilience in the eyes of both retail investors and institutions. Technically, the support is being reinforced by multiple indicators, especially the MVRV pricing bands, which reflect the average profitability of Bitcoin holders.

If BTC were to lose this level with accompanying volume and lower on-chain confidence, it could mark the start of a deeper correction. But for now, indicators suggest a healthy accumulation phase is underway.

ETF Inflows Offer Support

One key factor helping bulls maintain their stance is the sustained inflow into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These investment vehicles continue to attract institutional capital, offering a regulated way for funds to gain BTC exposure without directly holding the asset.

The 10-day moving average of ETF flows, one of the metrics included in the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Index, remains positive. This suggests that institutional appetite has not faded, even as price action cools.

ETF flows are particularly important during transitional market phases. While they don’t cause immediate price spikes, consistent inflows gradually remove supply from the open market, creating upward pressure over time.

Heat Index Confirms Normal Market Activity

The Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Index—a composite metric that tracks overall market sentiment and overheating risk—has been relatively stable. Developed by Axel Adler Jr of Adler Crypto Insights, the index integrates four components:

• Normalized MVRV Z-score

• aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio)

• Long-term vs Short-term holder cost basis

• 10-day average ETF inflows in USD

At the market’s peak on May 22, the Heat Index hit 0.45, coinciding with Bitcoin’s local top at $111,000. It later cooled to 0.39 by June 5, when the price dipped to around $101,000.

Currently, the index reads 0.41—indicative of normal demand and healthy market activity. However, if it drops below 0.39 again while Bitcoin falls under $100,000, analysts warn this would signal a full transition into a corrective phase.

Long-Term Holders Are Still Confident

One of the most encouraging signs for Bitcoin bulls is the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs). Rather than reacting to recent volatility by selling, these holders have maintained their positions, suggesting belief in a broader upward trajectory.

CryptoQuant’s data on spot taker cumulative volume delta (CVD) shows that taker buy volume has outpaced sell volume over the past 90 days. This pattern indicates continued buyer interest at current prices, even during quieter trading days.

Unlike in late 2024, when sharp selling created panic and dragged prices down aggressively, the current environment shows patience and resilience among those holding large positions.

What’s Holding Bitcoin Back?

Despite these positive signals, Bitcoin has struggled to break above key resistance levels near $111,000. A combination of global geopolitical tensions and cautious macroeconomic sentiment may be contributing to the pause in momentum.

Uncertainty from conflict zones, concerns over interest rates, and potential changes in regulatory frameworks are all factors that can dampen investor enthusiasm in the short term. However, such periods often set the stage for larger moves once external fears subside.

The Path Ahead: Holding $100K Is Key

As it stands, Bitcoin’s market remains in a delicate balance. A clean break below $100,000—especially if the Heat Index falls in tandem—could flip sentiment and trigger stronger selling pressure. But if BTC holds this range and manages a steady climb above $106,000–$108,000 in the coming days, the bull thesis could regain momentum.

What’s clear is that both price and on-chain data need to remain aligned to maintain the current optimism. If ETF inflows continue and long-term holders stay firm, Bitcoin has a strong chance of rebounding from its current cooling phase without entering a deeper correction.