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Bitwise projected a $1.6 million Bitcoin price for 2036 in an outlook released on Oct. 28, a figure that depends heavily on a combined gold-and-Bitcoin market reaching $109.8 trillion by that year.
The asset manager’s forecast assumes a 34.3% annual return, a figure that diverges significantly from the 10% compound return assumption in JPMorgan’s Bitcoin scenarios introduced on Oct. 19. Applying JPMorgan’s lower return rate to Bitwise’s $83,557 September reference price for a ten-year period results in a value of approximately $216,725. This calculation highlights a gap of roughly $1.4 million between the two institutions’ projections.
Valuation Framework and Market Assumptions
Bitwise’s valuation methodology estimates the future size of markets Bitcoin could serve, assigns a share to the cryptocurrency, and divides the combined value by the 21 million coin supply limit. The primary driver of the 2036 target is the store-of-value category, which Bitwise defines as the combined market of gold and Bitcoin.
The firm assumes this market will expand from a current estimate of $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036. Within that framework, Bitcoin is projected to capture a 25% share. This single category contributes $27.45 trillion to the total valuation, representing 82% of the roughly $33.6 trillion implied by Bitwise’s precise base target of $1,599,766.
Volatility assumptions also differ between the two firms. JPMorgan reported a 55% annualized volatility alongside its return scenarios, while Bitwise models a 27.8% volatility, which it describes as the midpoint between current levels and its modeled 2036 figures. JPMorgan has cited Bitcoin’s volatility and unstable correlations as obstacles to including it in its main portfolio framework, keeping it in a smaller comparison of asset movements rather than a core allocation.
Comparative Forecasts and Institutional Shifts
Bitwise’s new outlook moves the forecast horizon forward one year from its previous target of $1.3 million by 2035. The firm’s bear case stands at $130,686, while its bull case reaches approximately $3.67 million. The analysis suggests that a seven-figure Bitcoin price requires the combined gold-and-Bitcoin market to grow substantially and for Bitcoin to secure a larger share of that value.
Other institutions have also adjusted their Bitcoin timelines recently. On Dec. 9, 2025, Standard Chartered moved its $500,000 Bitcoin forecast from 2028 to 2030. Geoffrey Kendrick, who led the reassessment, cited changes in corporate-treasury demand and reliance on ETF buying as factors in the update.
Cathie Wood of ARK Invest stated on Nov. 6, 2025, that stablecoin adoption could remove about $300,000 from an earlier $1.5 million Bitcoin bull case. This comment referred to a different starting case than ARK’s April model, which had a $2.4 million bull outcome. As of press time, Bitcoin traded near $81,070 with a market value of about $1.6 trillion.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of Bitwise’s 2036 Bitcoin valuation comes from the store-of-value market?
Approximately 82% of the valuation, or $27.45 trillion, is derived from the store-of-value category, which assumes Bitcoin captures 25% of a $109.8 trillion gold-and-Bitcoin market.
How does JPMorgan’s Bitcoin return assumption compare to Bitwise’s?
JPMorgan assumes a 10% compound return with 55% annualized volatility, while Bitwise forecasts a 34.3% annual return with 27.8% modeled volatility.
