Goldman Sachs Cuts September Rate Hike Odds as Bitcoin Holds $63,500

Goldman Sachs basically told markets to stop worrying about a September Federal Reserve rate hike — and Bitcoin traders seem to like the sound of that. The bank’s chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note that inflation is more likely to improve than worsen as the year moves forward, and that market expectations for the Fed funds rate are probably too aggressive.

Bitcoin was sitting at $63,500 at the time, up roughly 1% since midnight UTC. It’s been stuck in a $62,000 to $66,000 band for over a month now — not exactly exciting, but not breaking down either. The coin’s held that range through some pretty choppy macro news, which says something about where demand is sitting right now.

What Goldman’s Call Actually Means for Crypto

Interest rates matter a lot here. When rates go up, credit tightens, fiat liquidity shrinks, and investors tend to pull back from riskier stuff — Bitcoin included. The Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle in 2022 was a brutal reminder of that. Bitcoin lost most of its value that year as the central bank hiked rates at a pace not seen in decades. On the flip side, the March 2020 rate cuts that followed the Covid-19 crash helped light the fuse on one of crypto’s biggest bull runs.

So Goldman’s read — that a September hike is unlikely — isn’t just a macro footnote. It’s the kind of signal that can shift positioning. If liquidity stays loose and rates stay flat, the argument for holding Bitcoin gets a bit easier to make. Not a guarantee. But easier.

Hatzius pointed to weak retail sales data and soft employment figures as the main drivers behind the bank’s thinking. Slowing inflation sealed it. Per Goldman, the data picture just doesn’t support another hike right now.

CME FedWatch Puts Hike Probability at 30.6%

The numbers from CME FedWatch back that up. Only 30.6% of traders are currently pricing in a 25 basis point hike that would push the benchmark rate to a 3.75%–4% range. The majority expect no change at all. July’s inflation report landed pretty much in line with forecasts, showing continued deceleration — and that seems to have locked in the no-hike camp for now.

Unclear whether that consensus shifts before September. Any surprise in the next jobs report or CPI print could flip things fast. Markets are jumpy, and the Fed hasn’t exactly been predictable.

See also: Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Climb as $62,000 Support Hangs by a Thread

Bitcoin’s price stability within the current range probably reflects that tension. Investors aren’t rushing in, but they’re not bailing either. Cautious optimism, maybe. Or just waiting.

Zcash’s Tachyon Upgrade Adds a Different Kind of Story

Away from the macro noise, Zcash is moving forward with something called the Tachyon upgrade. The goal is to scale shielded payments — the privacy-focused transactions that Zcash is built around — and to push the network toward what the team calls quantum readiness. That’s a forward-looking bet on the idea that quantum computing will eventually pose a threat to standard cryptographic security.

The upgrade isn’t just technical. It’s also meant to stress-test Zcash’s funding model, security setup, and governance structures. That’s a broader kind of ambition than just patching code — it’s the community asking whether the whole system holds up under pressure.

Zcash doesn’t get nearly as much attention as Bitcoin or Ethereum, but the Tachyon work is the kind of infrastructure-level development that tends to matter later, even if it doesn’t move markets today.

Back on the Bitcoin side, traders will keep watching the Fed closely. Economic data releases between now and September could shift the picture quickly. Goldman’s call is a snapshot, not a verdict. Hatzius himself left room for the view to change if inflation surprises to the upside.

See also: Swan Bitcoin CEO Sees $57,000 Floor Before Bitcoin Climbs to $130,000

For now, Bitcoin sits at $63,500, the hike probability sits at 30.6%, and the market waits.