Bitcoin’s recent price action has Trigger debate about its short-term direction. While its push toward previous highs has lost momentum, not all indicators suggest a breakdown. The cryptocurrency is hovering just above key support zones, caught between mild bearish pressure in the derivatives market and strong underlying fundamentals.

Futures Market Power Turns Bearish

One of the more concerning developments comes from Bitcoin’s Futures Market Power metric. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, this metric has dipped into negative territory, currently around -93K. This figure signals a moderate increase in bearish sentiment among futures traders.

However, the historical context matters. During previous downturns—such as January’s dips of -150K or even -450K—Bitcoin only saw minor corrections ranging from 5% to 10%. By comparison, the current figure of -93K appears relatively tame and may not signal a full-scale trend reversal.

In essence, this bearish reading may simply reflect temporary hesitation rather than aggressive selling. If it follows past patterns, a modest pullback to the $93K–$98K range could occur—but not a collapse.

Bullish Signals Dominate Broader Market

Despite the subtle bearish lean in futures positioning, several metrics paint a more optimistic picture. Bitcoin’s Futures Basis remains positive across top exchanges, which means traders are still paying a premium to maintain long positions. This is typically a sign that sentiment remains bullish, even during periods of price consolidation.

The Funding Rate, which briefly turned negative 10 days ago, has since returned to positive territory. When both the Funding Rate and Futures Basis trend upward, it generally suggests that traders expect the asset’s price to rise further.

No Panic in Open Interest

Another metric worth noting is Open Interest, which refers to the total number of outstanding futures contracts. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s Open Interest has hovered near $33 billion, showing little change despite recent price movements.

A spike in Open Interest during a price decline would typically indicate aggressive shorting activity. That didn’t happen here. Instead, the market has stayed largely neutral, with no significant buildup in bearish or bullish positions. This stability suggests that most participants are waiting for clearer signals before placing their bets.

The $102,850 Safety Net

If the bearish pressure from the futures market deepens, Bitcoin may retrace slightly, but analysts expect a potential floor around the $102,850 level. This support level has acted as a cushion during recent price dips and could prevent further downside if selling pressure remains limited.

Even in a mild pullback scenario, the broader trend could remain intact, especially if macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment continue to support digital assets.

Bulls Still in the Game

For now, BTC remains perched near the upper end of its recent range, fluctuating between $104K and $107K. Given the lingering bullish signals in the funding rates and futures basis, any drop could be short-lived unless accompanied by a sharp rise in bearish momentum or external shock—such as geopolitical escalations or monetary policy shifts.

In summary, while some traders are hedging for a short-term correction, the broader market remains cautiously optimistic. Bitcoin may face minor dips, but there’s no strong evidence yet that a major breakdown is coming.

Final Outlook

The market currently sits at a crossroads. Bitcoin is absorbing bearish pressure from futures positions while showing resilience through positive funding rates and steady open interest. If historical patterns play out, a pullback toward $93K is possible but may be brief and shallow.

Alternatively, strong market fundamentals could carry BTC toward the $107K mark in the short term. Traders and investors are advised to watch how support at $102,850 holds and whether futures metrics shift further before making directional bets.

For now, Bitcoin remains in consolidation mode—with both bulls and bears waiting to see who makes the next move.