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Sentora released research on Nov. 13 quantifying the link between Bitcoin and Ether returns and U.S. stock market performance. The analysis covers data from May 2018 through November 2026. The study found that Bitcoin fell on 92% of the U.S. stock market’s worst-performing days since 2022. Ether declined on 95% of those same sessions.
As of 23:03 UTC, Bitcoin traded at $68,198, -4.4% over 24 hours, with $43.4 billion in 24-hour volume.
Equity Selloffs Drive Crypto Losses
The research distinguishes between ordinary market days and severe equity declines. On standard stock-market days, Bitcoin and Ether each fell roughly 49% of the time. During the worst equity sessions, however, the frequency of losses increased significantly. For Bitcoin, the loss frequency rose by 32 percentage points compared to ordinary days. For Ether, the increase was 30 percentage points.
Sentora identified 107 sessions in the S&P 500’s worst-performing 5% across the full sample period. Each of these sessions involved a loss of at least 1.74%. In this broader historical context, Bitcoin fell in 81% of those worst-performing sessions, while Ether declined in 79%. The 2022 onward analysis used a specific threshold for that period, covering 61 observations. In this restricted sample, Ether underperformed Bitcoin on 79% of the worst equity sessions.
The median dollar loss for Bitcoin on the worst equity days since 2022 was 3.6%. For Ether, the median loss was 5.6%. The median ETH/BTC return was negative 1.52% on the worst equity days, contrasting with a positive 0.67% on the best days. This creates a gap of 2.19 percentage points. Sentora noted that the pattern of Ether underperforming Bitcoin remained consistent even after removing March 2020 from the analysis.
Trading Hours and Correlation Shifts
The study examined price variation relative to time zones. U.S. trading hours accounted for 33% of Bitcoin’s price variation, despite representing only 17.1% of the observed time. For Ether, U.S. trading hours accounted for 30% of price variation. Sentora’s hourly analysis covered the period since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. The cash-session window was defined as 10 a.m. through the actual stock-market close in New York, excluding the opening half-hour.
In a typical U.S. trading hour, Bitcoin’s average absolute move was 2.09 times its weekend-hour move. Ether’s equivalent ratio was 1.78. Removing the largest 1% of hourly moves did not significantly change these volatility timing results. The correlation between cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500 has also evolved. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.29 over the entire period. Ether’s correlation was 0.31. Both correlations were slightly negative in 2018 and 2019 but reached roughly 0.50 in 2026.
Nov. 5 Selloff and Market Data
The Nov. 5 selloff provided a recent example of this alignment. The S&P 500 lost 4.4% and the Nasdaq-100 fell 6.4% that day. Bitcoin dropped 5% and Ether declined 7.2%. CoinGlass recorded 24-hour crypto liquidations of approximately $1.08 billion on Nov. 5. Long liquidations totaled $954.38 million, while short liquidations totaled $127.30 million.
Weekly exchange inflows reached $3.09 billion for Bitcoin and $1.10 billion for Ether, totaling $4.19 billion. Stablecoin supply fell by $4.75 billion to $287.77 billion during the week of the briefing. Stablecoin supply had declined every day for more than two weeks prior to the report.
