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Bitcoin at $64,500. Down 48% from its all-time high in October 2025. And VanEck says it strongly resembles a capitulation.
The investment firm released an analysis based on its proprietary dashboard of 12 capitulation indicators. On August 18, eight of these signals were active simultaneously. Not all twelve, but eight out of twelve is already a signal VanEck takes seriously — prompting its analysts to discuss a possible turning point for the Bitcoin market.
The correction has lasted about 11 months. Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have averaged 12.7 months. In other words, we’re approaching the zone where it often turns around.
Long-Term Holders Sold 356,000 BTC in 30 Days
The behavior of major holders, known as long-term holders, is central to the analysis. These wallets liquidated 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days. As a result, their share of the circulating supply fell below 60%. It’s a massive sell-off, and it’s exactly the kind of movement that activates capitulation signals in VanEck’s model.
But here’s the thing: they still hold 11.84 million BTC. Not exactly a total exit. More of a position reduction, likely under pressure from low prices. And it’s often at these moments, when the strongest hands start to sell, that the market hits a bottom. Not always. But often.
VanEck sees in this movement the beginnings of a transition to an accumulation phase. The idea: sellers tire out, patient buyers start to scoop up. The market stabilizes. Then rebounds. It’s the classic pattern of Bitcoin cycles — each cycle with its own variations, but the underlying pattern remains similar.
Matthew Sigel Holds Firm on $180,000 Despite Volatility
Matthew Sigel, at VanEck, maintains his long-term target of $180,000 for Bitcoin. Even with a market that has lost almost half its value since the peak. Even with 11 months of correction behind us.
VanEck places the potential inflection point between September and November 2026. That’s the window the firm is watching. But caution — and VanEck insists on this — capitulation signals do not guarantee an immediate rebound. Short-term returns after these signals are often below Bitcoin’s usual performance. It’s counterintuitive, but that’s what history shows.
On a one-year horizon, however, investing in these capitulation zones has historically been more profitable. That doesn’t mean it will work this time. It means that the risk/reward ratio, from afar, has often been favorable.
It’s not yet clear if the remaining four signals will activate. The source does not specify which ones are missing.
VanEck also incorporates other factors into its analysis besides the movements of long-term holders — transaction volume, exchange flows, on-chain activity in general. These elements provide a more complete picture of what’s really happening beneath the price surface. And for now, the overall picture leans towards an end of the bearish cycle, without being an absolute certainty.
The firm remains cautious about quick interpretations. The periods when these indicators aligned in the past did not always lead to a clear and rapid rebound. Sometimes the market lingers, consolidates, tests the bottoms several times before truly recovering. It’s the risk of reading signals too quickly that require time to confirm.
What is certain: VanEck sees Bitcoin as an asset that continues to attract institutional investors despite the pressure. The resilience in the face of market cycles is likely what keeps the interest of big capital, even when prices hurt.
Eight signals out of twelve. 356,000 BTC sold. 11.84 million still in the hands of long-term holders. And Matthew Sigel sticking to his $180,000.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many capitulation indicators has VanEck activated for Bitcoin?
On August 18, eight out of twelve indicators from VanEck’s capitulation dashboard were active, in a context where Bitcoin was trading around $64,500, 48% below its all-time high in October 2025.
What is VanEck’s long-term Bitcoin price target?
Matthew Sigel from VanEck maintains a long-term target of $180,000 for Bitcoin, with a potential inflection point between September and November 2026 according to the firm.
How much Bitcoin have long-term holders sold recently?
Long-term holders have sold 356,000 BTC over 30 days, reducing their share of the circulating supply below 60%, while still holding 11.84 million BTC.
Why It Matters
The identification of multiple capitulation signals by VanEck highlights a pivotal moment for Bitcoin, suggesting that the market may be nearing a bottom after significant price declines. This analysis could influence investor sentiment and trading strategies, as capitulation often precedes potential recoveries. Furthermore, a long-term price target of $180,000 underscores the firm's bullish outlook, indicating confidence in Bitcoin's future despite current volatility.
