XRP’s average November gain of 80.2% is statistically distorted by two extreme outliers, according to data from Cryptorank. The median return for the month is -10%, a figure that more accurately reflects the token’s typical seasonal performance over thirteen years of observations.
The discrepancy arises from two specific years that skew the mean significantly. In November 2013, XRP surged 531.9%, and in November 2024, it rallied 281.7%. These isolated anomalies pull the average upward, masking the fact that in most historical cycles, the token closed the month in the red.
Current Market Conditions
As of late October, XRP has dropped 15.7% for the month. The fourth quarter is currently down 16.3%, based solely on October’s performance. This decline follows a 48% gain in the third quarter, which was the token’s best Q3 performance in four years. The recent drop suggests that at least part of the current pressure is profit-taking following the strong quarterly rally, rather than seasonality alone.
The price has fallen below the key support line of $1.30 and is trading in the $1.25–$1.26 range. This marks a local downtrend as upward momentum fades. The market structure has also changed since the launch of spot XRP ETFs in the US in mid-November 2025, introducing an institutional demand channel that did not exist in earlier cycles.
Escrow Unlocks and Liquidity
A scheduled unlock of 1 billion XRP from Ripple’s escrow wallets is set for Sunday, November 1. This event has followed the same monthly schedule since 2017. Historically, Ripple returns 600–800 million XRP to new escrow contracts, meaning the net addition to circulating supply is estimated at 200–400 million XRP.
This supply influx enters the market amid thin liquidity and the aftermath of a recent wave of forced liquidations. Long positions worth more than $1.29 billion were liquidated due to a security incident at the Binance exchange. While this event cleared excess leverage from the market, it also contributed to the recent price pressure.
Two primary scenarios emerge from the current chart configuration. A breakdown of the $1.20–$1.17 zone would open a path to the psychological mark of $1.00 and the local low of $0.98. Conversely, buyers need to push quotes above the $1.30–$1.32 range to return to bullish dynamics. If funding rates remain negative and open interest does not recover, a short squeeze could cap the bearish scenario, making a retest of the higher range more likely than historical averages suggest.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the median November return for XRP?
The median November return for XRP is -10%, based on thirteen years of historical data. This figure is considered a more accurate reflection of typical performance than the average, which is skewed by outliers.
How much XRP is scheduled to unlock in November?
A total of 1 billion XRP is scheduled to unlock from Ripple’s escrow wallets on November 1. However, the net addition to circulating supply is estimated at 200–400 million XRP, as Ripple typically returns a portion of the unlocked amount to new escrow contracts.
