XRP spot traders have turned sell-dominant for the first time in 2026, according to AMBCrypto, as the asset’s price slides from $1.55 in late September to $1.05. This shift marks a significant change in market behavior, as spot traders had previously maintained a neutral stance for most of the year, with only brief buy-heavy periods in January, February, and May.
Futures and Spot Selling Converge
The convergence of selling pressure in both futures and spot markets is the central development in XRP’s recent decline. CryptoQuant’s Futures Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has been sell-dominant since late August, a trend that has persisted for two and a half months. According to the data, the only instance this year when futures traders leaned buy-heavy was at the beginning of 2026.
Spot traders, who had largely remained neutral until October, have now joined this sell-dominant trend. The Spot Take CVD becoming sell-dominant is the first time this has occurred all year. This distinction is critical for market interpretation: while futures selling can often reflect traders betting on short positions, spot selling indicates that holders of actual XRP are exiting their positions.
Volume Metrics Show Unusual Activity
Trading volume in both markets has remained elevated during this price decline, a pattern that typically contradicts standard market behavior where high volume accompanies price increases. The Futures volume bubble map turned red in late August and was marked as “overheating” through most of September and early October. Although this intensity has slowed slightly, the volume remains significantly higher than average.
Spot volume followed a similar trajectory, moving into a “heating” phase in early September and reaching “overheating” levels by the middle of the month. It has stayed hot since then. Notably, spot volume was recorded as “cooling” when the price was at $1.40, highlighting the recent surge in activity during the dip. The combination of high volume and falling prices in both markets suggests active selling rather than accumulation.
Whale Orders Remain Directionless
CryptoQuant’s Average Order Size metric has indicated “big whale orders” on both Futures and Spot markets since early October. This activity is not new; whale-sized orders were also prominent through June, July, and most of August, a period during which XRP traded between $1 and $1.25. Towards the end of August, the price recovered to $1.50 before the recent decline began.
The Average Order Size metric provides data on the magnitude of trades but does not indicate their direction. Consequently, it is unclear whether these large orders represent whales buying the dip or exiting their positions. However, given that whales are currently moving the most money in the market, their actions at the $1 price level are likely to determine the asset’s next move. The market remains in a state of uncertainty as these large players continue to trade without a clear directional signal.
