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Seven Wall Street firms cut their Coinbase (COIN) price targets on Friday following a slow start to the fourth quarter, with trading fees reaching only about $165 million through October 25. The stock fell 6% to $150.75 before the open on the news.
Analyst Estimates Adjusted
The reductions reflect a decline in crypto trading activity, which drives the majority of Coinbase’s revenue. Trading fees accounted for nearly half of the company’s $1.22 billion in third-quarter revenue. Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas stated on Thursday’s earnings call that transaction revenue through October 25 was approximately $165 million.
Barclays issued the lowest target, cutting its estimate to $120 from $149, a figure 25% below the stock’s Thursday close of $160.59. Mizuho lowered its target to $145 from $155 and projects Q4 transaction revenue at about $607 million. This projection is slightly above the $590 million recorded in Q3 but sits 11% below the $684 million consensus established before the earnings release.
Other firms also revised their outlooks downward. Wells Fargo moved its target to $174 from $200, while Compass Point adjusted to $165 from $187. Needham set its target at $197, down from $205, and Canaccord cut its estimate to $275 from $300. Jefferies lowered its target to $174 from $183, citing the company’s expense outlook, while Mizuho noted that retail traders are drifting toward Robinhood.
Q3 Results and Insider Sales
Coinbase’s third-quarter transaction revenue was down 44% year on year, according to the company’s quarterly filing with US regulators. Shareholders, who have seen a 51% decline in value over the past year, faced these lower targets one day after the company reported a $718.7 million headline profit. This profit was primarily driven by paper gains rather than operating performance.
Operating income fell to $61.7 million from $480.5 million in the previous period, while a $715 million unrealized crypto gain accounted for most of the net income. Despite the fee slowdown, Coinbase lowered its 2026 adjusted expense guidance to between $4.15 billion and $4.3 billion, a move Mizuho characterized as positive. Haas also noted that trading conditions improved in September.
The company reported that prediction markets, where users trade contracts on event outcomes, passed $200 million in annualized revenue. Additionally, average holdings of USDC, a dollar-pegged digital token, reached a record $22 billion on the Coinbase platform.
The price target cuts occurred as crypto stocks slid following a $6.3 billion hack at Binance, a figure reported by the exchange itself. Binance stated that withdrawals should resume within 48 hours of the incident.
Pre-set share sales by CEO Brian Armstrong, co-founder Fred Ehrsam, and President Emilie Choi can begin on November 16, covering up to 13.6 million shares in total. Armstrong adopted a 10b5-1 plan to sell up to 8.17 million shares, valued at approximately $1.31 billion, through October 2027. Ehrsam entered a plan for up to 3.87 million shares, and Choi for up to 1.56 million shares.
TipRanks data showed a 30-analyst average target of $207.61, with 19 Buy ratings against two Sell ratings. The lowest target in that range is $100.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did banks cut Coinbase price targets?
Seven Wall Street firms cut Coinbase price targets because trading fees reached only about $165 million through October 25, indicating a weak start to the fourth quarter.
What is the new Coinbase price target from Barclays?
Barclays cut its Coinbase price target to $120 from $149, which is 25% below the stock’s Thursday close of $160.59.
