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Kalshi wants $40 billion. That’s the target valuation as the prediction market platform pushes to raise $1 billion in fresh capital — and the number is pretty wild given where it stood just months ago.
Why It Matters
The ambitious $40 billion valuation target for Kalshi reflects increasing investor confidence in prediction markets, which are gaining traction as alternative trading venues in the broader financial landscape. This rapid escalation in valuation also underscores a competitive environment in the fintech space, where firms are striving to differentiate themselves and capture market share amid fluctuating investor sentiment towards tech and crypto-related investments. Such developments may signal a growing acceptance of innovative trading platforms, potentially reshaping traditional market dynamics.
Back in May, Kalshi closed what it called a Series F at a $22 billion valuation. That was already nearly double its December figure. Now it’s in talks to double again, targeting a $40 billion mark with a new round that would bring in another $1 billion. Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are reportedly in discussions to participate, and Tiger Global Management and Dragoneer Investment Group could also join. No deal is signed. No timeline confirmed. But the talks are clearly advanced enough that figures are circulating publicly, which tells you something about where Kalshi thinks it stands.
Not everyone in crypto land is riding the same wave.
Blockchain.com’s IPO: A Humbler Ambition
Blockchain.com is heading toward a public offering, but the numbers are sobering compared to where the company once sat. At the peak of the last crypto surge, Blockchain.com carried a $14 billion valuation. The IPO it’s now preparing for? Somewhere between $4 billion and $6 billion. That’s a steep haircut, even accounting for broader market shifts since that peak.
The company filed draft registration documents with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in May — confidentially, as is standard before a formal S-1 goes public. It’s looking to raise around $500 million. Bitcoin has gained over 30% since mid-August, which gives the macro backdrop some color, but the IPO market for crypto firms has been rough. Gemini, BitGo, and eToro have all listed recently, and their shares remain well below their highs. That’s not a great look for Blockchain.com’s roadmap, and it probably knows it. The company has signaled it may adjust the offering size depending on conditions. Smart move. Flexible, at least.
Neither Kalshi nor Blockchain.com has commented publicly on these plans.
Digital Asset Treasury Companies Lose Their Premium
Somewhere in the background of all this, a quieter crisis is playing out. Of the 20 largest digital asset treasury companies, only four still trade above the value of their actual crypto holdings. Four. That’s it.
A year or two ago, these companies could issue shares at a premium to net asset value — meaning investors were willing to pay more for the stock than the underlying crypto was worth. That premium let them raise equity, buy more cryptocurrency, and grow holdings without diluting existing shareholders. It was a clean loop while it lasted. It doesn’t work anymore. Most of these stocks now trade below NAV, which means raising equity is dilutive by definition. The financing playbook has basically collapsed for most of them.
Per DWF Ventures, the shift in investor sentiment has pushed most digital asset treasury stocks to underperform compared to just holding the crypto directly. Seems obvious in hindsight. But a lot of capital got deployed into these structures when the premium existed, and that capital is now sitting in a harder spot.
Bitget’s $388 Million Breach and a Skeptical CEO
Then there’s Bitget. The exchange suffered a security breach that it initially put at $352 million. The figure was later revised upward to $388 million — not a small revision. CEO Gracy Chen was candid about the outlook for recovery, drawing a comparison to the Bybit hack, where only a small fraction of stolen funds was ultimately frozen. She didn’t sound optimistic.
NEAR Intents and other partners have managed to freeze portions of the stolen assets. But “portions” is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Full recovery seems unlikely at this point, and Chen’s comments don’t suggest otherwise.
There are suspicions of North Korean involvement based on IP address matches. That’s unverified. Unclear whether it ever gets proven. North Korean state-linked groups have been tied to major crypto thefts before, so the suspicion isn’t random — but suspicion isn’t attribution.
The breach, the uncertainty around recovery, and the candid pessimism from Bitget’s own CEO all land at a moment when the broader industry is trying to project stability to institutional investors. Timing isn’t great.
So you’ve got Kalshi swinging for a $40 billion valuation, Blockchain.com quietly filing for an IPO at a fraction of its former peak, most digital asset treasury companies trading below their crypto holdings, and Bitget working through a $388 million hole with limited recovery prospects.
Kalshi’s Series F talks remain ongoing, with no closing date announced.
Frequently Asked Questions
What valuation is Kalshi targeting in its latest funding round?
Kalshi is targeting a $40 billion valuation as it seeks to raise $1 billion, roughly double its $22 billion valuation from May.
How much did Bitget lose in its security breach?
Bitget initially reported a $352 million loss before revising the figure to $388 million; CEO Gracy Chen has expressed doubt about full recovery.
