Robinhood event contracts hit $173 million as crypto revenue drops 55%

Robinhood generated $173 million in revenue from event contracts during the third quarter, a figure that exceeded its $120 million in cryptocurrency revenue and accounted for 12.1% of its total net revenue of $1,424 million. The shift marks a significant change in the company’s income structure, as its crypto revenue declined 55% from the same period in the previous year.

Quarterly Revenue Trajectory

According to Robinhood’s earnings materials, event contract revenue has grown steadily across the first nine months of 2026. The company reported $104 million in the first quarter, rising to $156 million in the second quarter and reaching $173 million in the third. These figures sum to $433 million for the first nine months of the year, representing approximately 66% growth from the first to the third quarter.

The crossover point where event contracts surpassed crypto revenue occurred in the second quarter. During that period, event contracts brought in $156 million while cryptocurrency transactions generated $100 million. In the third quarter, the gap widened further as crypto revenue fell to $120 million. Robinhood noted in its filings that enforcement actions, litigation, or changes in law could prevent it from continuing to offer event contracts.

Competitor Disclosures and Growth Metrics

Coinbase reported on Oct. 29 that its prediction markets business had surpassed $200 million in annualized net revenue. The company defines this milestone as quarterly annualized net revenue for the most recent qualifying quarter, a measure distinct from actual quarterly revenue. Coinbase also disclosed 82% compound quarterly growth in prediction-market revenue over the product’s operating history. Daily traders on the platform increased more than 60% quarter over quarter, and prediction users generated incremental spot trading volume.

Alesia Haas, Coinbase’s Chief Financial Officer, stated that the additional revenue was less correlated with crypto volatility and helped make the company more resilient across market cycles. In contrast, Gemini reported a much smaller contribution from its prediction market. The company’s second-quarter filing showed $524,000 in prediction-market revenue for the three months ended June 30, which represented about 1.2% of its total revenue of $45 million. First-half prediction revenue of $968,000 implies a first-quarter contribution of $444,000, indicating approximately 18% quarterly growth. Gemini’s broader revenue diversification in the second quarter came primarily from services, which grew 149% year over year, while exchange revenue fell 38%.

Other venues have expanded their prediction offerings without disclosing comparable revenue figures. Crypto.com launched its OG prediction-market platform on Feb. 3, with CEO Kris Marszalek citing 40-fold weekly growth in the business over six months. Bybit Prediction launched within Bybit Alpha on June 10, initially focused on football. Phemex announced an April 22 launch powered by Polymarket, while OKX’s Outcomes League campaign, published in August, used free, nonmonetary points with no real funds involved.