Hayes: AI IPO dilution threatens crypto liquidity

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that public listings for SpaceX, Anthropic, and potentially OpenAI will create a supply shock. This could initially depress risk assets, including Bitcoin, before triggering the monetary conditions needed for a broader crypto rally.

In his essay “D is for Dilution,” Hayes connects AI initial public offerings (IPOs) to digital asset liquidity. He estimates roughly 8.6 billion SpaceX shares could become tradable by June 2027, about half the company’s current count. For Anthropic, he calculates early investors could face up to 83% dilution as lockups expire. He expects similar dynamics if OpenAI proceeds with a listing.

Share Price As Sentiment Scoreboard

Hayes contends the AI trade is driven by sentiment, with share prices indicating investor belief in future profits. If major AI firms trade below IPO prices due to insider selling, he argues investors will doubt the businesses regardless of performance.

The stakes reach beyond equity. These companies seek to tap corporate bond markets directly. If weak share prices force bond buyers to demand higher yields, AI infrastructure funding costs will rise. Because banks finance this expansion, slower AI lending would reduce dollar liquidity in the financial system, weighing on Bitcoin and crypto in the near term.

This link was evident this week as a Wall Street sell-off in chipmakers and tech stocks pulled Bitcoin down in tandem.

From Liquidity Drain To Monetary Easing

Hayes views Bitcoin’s price as correlated with dollar liquidity. He estimates $1.5 trillion in AI-related debt was issued between 2022 and 2026, competing with crypto for capital. If AI IPO dilution slows this credit machine, that competition eases.

The bullish side of the thesis relies on a potential financial crisis. Hayes argues that if the AI bubble bursts, central bank bailouts would trigger money creation and falling real yields. This liquidity wave could push Bitcoin and crypto higher, mirroring past rallies following monetary easing.

Hayes is not predicting an immediate rally. His firm, Maelstrom, will remain on the sidelines until liquidity improves, anticipating short-term turbulence before a more favorable environment.

Hayes contrasts AI equity dilution with Bitcoin’s fixed supply. Citing Zcash as a cautionary example of early supply dynamics, he notes Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins with no insiders awaiting lockup expirations. Following the 2024 halving, annual issuance fell below 1%. Hayes suggests that if dilution defines the 2027 market, Bitcoin’s public supply schedule provides a distinct advantage for institutions using spot Bitcoin ETFs.