Goldman Sachs Predicts Gold Surge to $4,900 Amid Central Banks Buying 100 Tonnes Monthly

Goldman Sachs just raised its gold target to $4,900 per troy ounce by year-end. That’s a bold call, and the bank’s commodities team is pretty clear about what’s driving it: central banks are buying gold at a pace that would’ve looked extreme not long ago.

Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven are leading the research. Their read is that central banks are snapping up gold to hedge against geopolitical and financial uncertainty, and the numbers back that up. June alone saw central banks purchase an average of 100 tonnes of gold — up sharply from 66 tonnes in May. The bank’s base case for the rest of the year sits at 50 tonnes per month, which is still roughly three times the pre-2022 rate of 17 tonnes per month. That kind of structural shift in demand doesn’t just disappear overnight.

Central Bank Buying Resets the Baseline

For context, the pre-2022 monthly average was 17 tonnes. So even the “conservative” 50-tonne forecast feels elevated by historical standards. Central banks have been diversifying reserves for years, but the pace picked up dramatically after 2022 and hasn’t really slowed. Thomas and Struyven see that continuing — not as a short-term reaction to any single event, but as a longer-term strategic shift in how central banks think about reserve composition.

Gold doesn’t pay a yield. It doesn’t generate cash flow. But when geopolitical risk is high and trust in any single currency is murky, it’s basically the one asset that every central bank can hold without political baggage. That’s the appeal. And right now, that appeal is clearly strong enough to move markets.

The Goldman team also flagged something worth watching: they did not factor heightened ETF demand into their $4,900 forecast. That’s a notable omission. If retail and institutional investors start piling into gold ETFs at the same time central banks are buying, prices could move beyond what the current model projects. It’s an upside risk, not a ceiling.

Rate Expectations and the Debasement Trade

Beyond central bank activity, Thomas and Struyven pointed to U.S. interest rate expectations as another tailwind. Their view is that the Federal Reserve will hold rates at current levels, and that kind of stable-rate environment tends to be good for gold. Lower rate expectations cut the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset — gold gets relatively more attractive when you’re not giving up much by not owning Treasuries instead.

And then there’s what the analysts call the “debasement trade.” The idea here is that private portfolios currently hold relatively little gold. If concerns about Western fiscal sustainability keep building — and geopolitical tensions, including those involving Iran, keep simmering — private investors may start adding gold to diversify. That’s a different demand driver than central banks, and it could layer on top of the existing buying pressure.

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It’s not a certainty. The analysts frame it as a medium-term catalyst, something that could accelerate gold’s move rather than something that’s already baked in. But the logic is pretty straightforward: if you’re worried about fiscal deficits, currency debasement, or geopolitical blowups, gold is one of the few assets that’s hard to sanction, can’t be printed, and has a 5,000-year track record as a store of value.

Private investor interest in gold has been inconsistent over the past few years. ETF flows were actually negative for stretches of 2022 and 2023 even as central banks were buying aggressively. So there’s a gap between institutional sovereign demand and retail/private demand that hasn’t fully closed. Goldman’s analysts seem to think that gap might start narrowing.

Where Silver Fits — and Doesn’t

The source briefly mentions Robert Kiyosaki’s focus on silver, tied to federal debt concerns. But Goldman’s forecast is squarely about gold, and the bank didn’t offer a detailed comparison between the two metals here. Kiyosaki’s view on silver is a separate thread — probably worth watching, but not what’s driving the $4,900 call.

Goldman’s broader strategies beyond the gold forecast weren’t disclosed in the research. The focus stayed tight: central bank demand, rate expectations, private investor potential, and the debasement narrative. Four drivers, one target.

Worth noting — the 50-tonne monthly purchase assumption is already a step down from June’s 100-tonne figure. So the forecast is built on a more conservative run-rate than what actually happened last month. If central banks keep buying closer to 100 tonnes, the math gets more interesting fast.

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Thomas and Struyven didn’t specify a timeline for when private investors might meaningfully accelerate their gold buying. Unclear whether that happens this year or bleeds into next. But the central bank demand alone, at 50 tonnes per month through year-end, is enough to anchor the $4,900 target in Goldman’s model.

The bank’s forecast sits at $4,900 per troy ounce by year-end, with June central bank purchases running at 100 tonnes.