A rare alignment of macro and market signals has crypto bulls buzzing. According to Real Vision’s Raoul Pal and chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts, the conditions are now ripe for a major upside move in Bitcoin—and possibly a broader altcoin surge shortly after.

In a detailed data-led discussion, the analysts outlined how the current environment is echoing historical patterns that preceded previous bull markets. With global liquidity breaking out, derivatives risk low, and on-chain fundamentals flashing green, both experts believe the crypto market is entering a powerful “breakout regime.”

Global Liquidity Breakout Could Drive Bitcoin Up Sharply

Jamie Coutts explained that his proprietary Global Liquidity Risk Score—a model built from central bank balance sheets, money supply data, FX reserves, and U.S. net liquidity—has just flipped bullish. According to Coutts, when this liquidity score enters positive territory, Bitcoin’s sensitivity to liquidity increases fivefold, and in some market cycles, even more.

“We’re not overstretched. We’re not overbought. In fact, this is the kind of setup where Bitcoin can move sharply upward, very quickly,” said Coutts.

Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal agreed: “From my work, it’s straight up from here. I think we’ll be surprised to the upside—especially by how fast stuff runs.”

Market Structure and Fundamentals Aligning for Upside

Three real-time indicators—global liquidity, derivatives risk, and network profitability—are forming the backbone of what Pal called Real Vision’s “ultimate signal” for crypto cycles. All three are currently sitting in a neutral, balanced position, which analysts say is a historically bullish setup.

One key metric, the liquidity multiplier, shows how responsive Bitcoin is to changes in global liquidity. In normal conditions, Bitcoin rises about 7% for every 1% increase in liquidity. But in post-contraction phases—like now—this multiplier can jump to 20–30%.

“Since liquidity broke out in early April, Bitcoin has rallied about 40%. Liquidity is up just 2%, which aligns perfectly with our model,” said Coutts.

Altcoin Season May Be Quietly Starting

While Bitcoin is often the first mover in a new bull cycle, Coutts highlighted signs that altcoins may be gearing up for their own rally. Using custom indices like an equal-weighted top 200 altcoin tracker, along with advance-decline lines and MACD-style oscillators, he pointed to early signals of a structural alt season forming.

“Back in March and April I said the bottom was forming in alts,” Coutts said. “We’re now starting to see higher lows on breadth charts. The alt season oscillator triggered in late April. It’s not explosive yet—but the structure is bullish.”

Raoul Pal added that macro factors like ISM (Manufacturing Index) and improving disposable income levels historically coincide with altcoin rallies. “Once the Fed cuts rates and earnings pick up, we’ll likely see investors move further out on the risk curve—and that’s what triggers a full alt season,” he explained.

On-Chain Metrics Show Clean Positioning

In contrast to previous peaks where overleverage and euphoria led to crashes, Coutts noted that current on-chain data paints a much healthier picture.

• Derivatives risk scores are low

• Unrealized profit metrics are neutral

• No signs of leverage-driven risk or overheated positioning

“If anything, the market looks underexposed,” Coutts stated.

Top Projects Gaining Momentum

Several standout projects are already attracting significant investor attention:

• Hyperliquid, a permissionless derivatives exchange, is gaining traction thanks to strong tokenomics and growing institutional interest. “It’s burning tokens like a growth stock,” Coutts said.

• Tron (TRX) is quietly generating over $9 million in daily fees, driven by stablecoin transfers—showcasing strong utility despite limited media attention.

• Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystems are increasingly picking up user and developer activity, helping Ethereum regain momentum. ETF inflows into ETH are also improving sentiment after a prolonged slump.

The Final Word: “Don’t Miss This Setup”

Real Vision’s analysts believe nearly all conditions are in place for a breakout. Liquidity is expanding. Altcoin breadth is strengthening. Positioning is clean. And on-chain data confirms the market isn’t in a bubble phas