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Prediction markets are growing fast. Really fast. A research firm just revised its forecast upward, now projecting roughly $410 billion in trading volume for 2026 — a 71% jump from its earlier estimates — after a sharp surge in activity pushed the numbers well past what anyone had penciled in.
The bigger headline is what’s sitting at the end of the runway. The same firm sees annual prediction-market volume potentially reaching $10 trillion by 2035. Getting there would need around 43% annual growth from this point forward, which is aggressive but not crazy given the current momentum. The firm is forecasting about 70% compound annual growth from 2025, and it’s quick to acknowledge that the math looks wild partly because the starting base is still pretty small.
Financial Contracts Are Taking Over
The real driver here isn’t sports bets. It’s financial contracts — crypto, equities, commodities. Right now, financial-asset contracts hold about 12% of prediction-market volume. By 2035, the firm sees that climbing to 49%. Do the math on a $10 trillion market and that’s roughly $4.7 trillion sitting in contracts tied to financial assets. That’s not a niche anymore. That’s a market.
The data from 2026 already backs up the shift. Crypto’s share of Kalshi’s trading volume went from under 5% in January to around 20% by August. Eight months. That’s a pretty dramatic move for a category that barely registered at the start of the year. Short-duration Bitcoin contracts seem to be pulling a lot of that traffic.
Sports contracts haven’t collapsed, though. On Polymarket, sports still account for around 52% of global volume through August. So the old guard is holding ground even as financial contracts eat into the overall mix. Whether that balance tips further before year-end is unclear.
Cboe Wants SEC Approval for Binary Options on 23 Companies
Cboe is pushing into territory that goes well beyond tracking whether Bitcoin closes above a round number. The exchange is seeking SEC approval for binary options tied to performance indicators from 23 companies — things like production rates, deliveries, subscriber growth. Corporate metrics, basically. Each contract would pay $1 if the specified condition is met at expiration, zero if it isn’t. Clean, simple, binary.
What separates these from standard event contracts is the infrastructure behind them. They’d trade through securities options platforms, not the prediction-market venues people usually think of. And Cboe Clear US is named as the intended central counterparty. Regulatory approval is still pending, so none of this is live yet.
But the direction is clear. If Cboe gets the green light, it opens a lane for contracts that let traders bet on whether a company hits a specific production number or subscriber milestone — not just whether the stock goes up. That’s a different kind of exposure than anything currently available at scale.
Legal Fog Won’t Lift Until 2027 at the Earliest
Here’s the messy part. The firm doesn’t think full regulatory clarity is coming anytime soon — probably not until 2027 or 2028, and that’s assuming ongoing legal disputes get resolved without too many detours. The core problem is the blurry line between federal derivatives oversight and state-level gambling laws. Courts haven’t landed on a unified answer, and until they do, sports contracts in particular are operating in a gray zone that makes expansion genuinely risky.
That legal uncertainty isn’t just an abstract concern. It shapes what platforms can offer, where they can operate, and how aggressively they can grow the sports side of the book. Financial contracts don’t carry the same baggage, which is probably one reason they’re gaining share so quickly.
The firm’s broader argument is that prediction markets don’t need to dominate anything to get massive. If they can capture just 0.5% of activity from the larger financial contracts market — equities, crypto, commodities — the volume numbers get very large very quickly. That’s the real thesis. Not that prediction markets replace traditional finance, but that they siphon off a sliver of it.
Cboe Clear US is still waiting on its regulatory green light.
Frequently Asked Questions
What trading volume are prediction markets projected to reach by 2035?
The research firm projects prediction-market volume could reach $10 trillion by 2035, requiring roughly 43% annual growth from current levels.
How much has crypto grown as a share of Kalshi’s volume in 2026?
Crypto’s share of Kalshi’s trading volume rose from under 5% in January 2026 to around 20% by August 2026.
What is Cboe seeking SEC approval for?
Cboe is seeking SEC approval for binary options linked to performance indicators from 23 companies, with Cboe Clear US named as the intended central counterparty.
Why It Matters
The projected growth of prediction markets to $10 trillion by 2035 underscores a significant shift in how individuals engage with risk assessment and decision-making, particularly in the context of decentralized finance. As crypto contracts begin to capture a substantial portion of traditional trading volumes, this trend could reshape market dynamics, attract institutional participants, and enhance the legitimacy of prediction markets as viable financial instruments. The implications for regulatory frameworks and market infrastructure are profound, as stakeholders will need to adapt to this evolving landscape.
