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Scott Bessent wants the CLARITY Act passed. Fast.
The U.S. Treasury Secretary has been pushing lawmakers hard to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act as the Senate came back from its August recess. Bessent’s message was pretty direct: fail to move on digital asset regulation, and the U.S. risks losing its footing in a sector that’s reshaping global finance. He’s calling on senators to keep negotiating and get behind the bill. Whether they listen is another question entirely.
From 75% to 10%: Galaxy’s Brutal Math
The numbers aren’t kind. Galaxy cut its forecast for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 down to 10% — a brutal drop from the 75% probability the firm had assigned back in May. That’s not a small revision. That’s a collapse in confidence. And it comes even after the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, which at the time looked like real momentum. It didn’t hold. Democrats pushed back. The banking industry pushed back harder. And now the bill sits in a kind of legislative limbo, with Bessent essentially trying to will it across the finish line through sheer public pressure.
The core complaint from critics is pretty specific. They say the CLARITY Act could let crypto firms offer yields on stablecoins without meeting the same requirements that traditional banks face. Banks don’t love that idea. Some Democrats don’t either. The argument is basically that you’d be creating a two-tier system — one set of rules for crypto, a stricter set for everyone else. Supporters of the bill disagree, but they haven’t fully quieted those concerns.
National Sheriffs’ Association Drops Opposition
One small piece of good news for the bill’s backers: the National Sheriffs’ Association shifted to a neutral position on September 3, dropping its earlier opposition. That’s not a full endorsement, but neutral is better than hostile. It’s probably not enough to change the math dramatically, but it’s the kind of signal that proponents will point to as evidence that the coalition against the bill is softening — at least at the edges.
Still, the gap between “some opposition dropped” and “bill passes” is enormous right now. The political headwinds are real. And Galaxy’s revised odds make clear that the market of informed observers isn’t buying the optimistic spin.
What Bessent Is Actually Arguing
Bessent’s push isn’t just about the bill’s technical merits. It’s framed around U.S. competitiveness. His argument is that without a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, America falls behind — that other jurisdictions will set the rules and U.S. firms will operate under frameworks written elsewhere. It’s a familiar argument in crypto policy circles, and it carries real weight with certain lawmakers. But familiar arguments don’t always win votes.
The CLARITY Act is meant to do something the U.S. has never really done cleanly: draw a clear line between which digital assets are securities, which are commodities, and who regulates what. The lack of that clarity has been a persistent source of friction between crypto firms and regulators for years. Companies have complained they can’t get straight answers. Regulators have said firms knew the rules and ignored them. The CLARITY Act was supposed to cut through that. So far, it hasn’t made it far enough to do anything.
Senate dynamics are murky right now. The bill needs bipartisan support to move, and that support isn’t there yet — at least not visibly. Bessent can push from the Treasury, but he can’t vote. The actual math happens on the floor, and the floor math seems tough.
The banking industry’s opposition is probably the stickiest problem. Banks have spent years watching crypto firms operate in spaces adjacent to traditional finance without the same compliance costs. The stablecoin yield issue is the sharpest version of that grievance. If crypto firms can offer yield-bearing stablecoins under a lighter regulatory touch, banks see that as a competitive disadvantage baked into law. That’s not an easy objection to overcome, especially when the banking lobby has real influence over the senators who’d need to flip.
Unclear whether the upcoming Senate session actually produces a vote on the CLARITY Act or just more negotiation. The source didn’t specify a firm timeline beyond the Senate’s return from recess. What’s clear is that Bessent is treating the window as narrow and the stakes as high.
Galaxy’s 10% odds are probably the most honest summary of where things stand.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the CLARITY Act actually do?
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act aims to build a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the U.S., setting rules for how they’re classified and overseen.
Why did Galaxy drop its passage odds so sharply?
Galaxy cut its forecast for the bill passing in 2026 from 75% in May down to 10%, reflecting the resistance from Democrats and the banking industry that emerged after the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee.
Why It Matters
The push from Treasury Secretary Bessent for the CLARITY Act underscores the growing urgency among U.S. policymakers to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets. As global financial markets increasingly embrace cryptocurrency and blockchain technologies, the U.S. risks ceding its competitive edge to jurisdictions with clearer regulations. The uncertain passage odds of the bill highlight the challenges facing legislative efforts in a polarized political environment, which could impact the overall development and adoption of digital asset markets in the country.
