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Zcash is up 19-fold over the past year. And Grayscale thinks it’s still cheap.
That’s pretty much the headline from Grayscale’s latest research, which makes a case that Zcash — despite its massive run — remains priced well below what its technology might justify. Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s Head of Research, sees room for further growth, pointing to financial privacy, cybersecurity trends, and cross-chain connectivity as the features that could push Zcash into a much bigger conversation among crypto investors.
Bitcoin at $1.56 Trillion, Zcash at $13.74 Billion
The numbers are stark. As of August 29, Bitcoin’s market cap sat at $1.56 trillion. Zcash’s came in at $13.74 billion — making Bitcoin roughly 114 times larger. Zcash still holds less than 1% of Bitcoin’s market cap, even after its price surge improved mining economics considerably.
Bitcoin controls 93% of Grayscale’s internal “Currencies” sector. Zcash is a rounding error by comparison. But Pandl’s argument is basically that investors are sleeping on what Zcash actually does differently — and that the gap might not stay this wide.
Grayscale lays out some hypothetical scenarios. If Zcash were to capture 2% of Bitcoin’s market cap, the price would land around $1,622 per coin. At 5%, that figure jumps to $4,054. At 10%, it hits $8,109. The firm is careful to call these hypotheticals, not forecasts. Still, the math is designed to make a point: even a small shift in market share would move Zcash’s price dramatically.
Not a guarantee. Just the math.
Privacy Tech and the AI Surveillance Angle
Zcash’s core pitch has always been financial privacy. It supports shielded transactions that use zero-knowledge proofs to obscure transaction details — sender, receiver, amount, all of it. Bitcoin doesn’t do this. Every Bitcoin transaction is traceable on a public ledger, which is fine for many use cases but leaves a lot of people exposed.
Grayscale’s research leans into something that’s probably going to get louder as a concern: artificial intelligence and financial surveillance. The firm argues that AI, combined with blockchain analytics, could sharply increase public anxiety about financial confidentiality. If that happens, the case for privacy-preserving networks gets stronger fast. It’s a macro tailwind that didn’t really exist five years ago, and it’s the kind of thing that’s hard to price in advance.
Zcash also shares some DNA with Bitcoin — proof-of-work consensus, fixed coin supply — which Grayscale seems to think matters for credibility. But the privacy layer is what sets it apart, and that’s where the investment thesis lives.
There’s also a newer piece: “intents technology.” This lets users coordinate cross-chain transactions and access Zcash’s privacy features without merchants needing to directly accept ZEC. That’s a meaningful unlock. It basically means Zcash’s privacy can travel across chains, which removes one of the bigger friction points that’s kept adoption limited.
ETF Now Live on NYSE Arca
On August 25, Grayscale’s Zcash ETF started trading on NYSE Arca. Before that, it was sitting on OTCQX — accessible, but not exactly mainstream. The NYSE Arca listing gives investors spot ZEC exposure through a publicly traded vehicle, no wallet management required, no private key headaches. It’s the kind of access point that tends to pull in institutional money and retail investors who want crypto exposure without the operational complexity.
Broader access probably matters here. Zcash has historically been a coin for privacy enthusiasts and technically sophisticated holders. An ETF on a major exchange changes who can own it.
Grayscale also flagged two specific factors it wants to see develop for Zcash to actually close the gap with Bitcoin: increased adoption of shielding technology and new capital flowing into wallet development and Zcash mining. Without those, the privacy features stay underused and the investment case stays theoretical.
The Zcash Foundation has been dealing with real security issues in the meantime. During the first quarter, it patched two vulnerabilities in the Zebra software — a critical remote denial-of-service flaw and a high-severity potential chain-split flaw. Both got fixed. But the fact that they existed is worth noting. A privacy network with a chain-split vulnerability is a serious problem, and the Foundation’s speed in patching it matters for long-term credibility.
Grayscale’s March analysis had already flagged Zcash as a serious Bitcoin competitor. The August ETF launch on NYSE Arca is the firm putting money behind that view.
Bitcoin’s market cap: $1.56 trillion. Zcash’s: $13.74 billion.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much has Zcash’s price risen over the past year?
Zcash has risen approximately 19-fold over the past year, per Grayscale’s research.
What are Grayscale’s price scenarios for Zcash?
Grayscale puts hypothetical Zcash prices at $1,622 if it reaches 2% of Bitcoin’s market cap, $4,054 at 5%, and $8,109 at 10% — all described as scenarios, not forecasts.
When did Grayscale’s Zcash ETF start trading on NYSE Arca?
Grayscale’s Zcash ETF began trading on NYSE Arca on August 25, moving from its prior OTCQX listing to offer broader spot ZEC exposure.
Why It Matters
The surge in Zcash's market cap and Grayscale's bullish outlook highlight the growing interest in privacy-centric cryptocurrencies amid increasing concerns over data security and regulatory scrutiny. As more investors seek alternatives to traditional assets, Zcash's unique value proposition may position it favorably in a rapidly evolving market landscape, potentially leading to greater adoption and integration across various financial systems. This trend could signal a broader shift in investor sentiment towards cryptocurrencies that prioritize privacy and technological innovation.
