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XRP holders are debating the long-term impact of spot exchange-traded funds, and analyst Chad Steingraber believes the outcome is more predictable than it appears. According to him, XRP now faces only two realistic price paths following the rollout of spot ETFs — and both scenarios ultimately favor long-term investors.
His comments arrive as market participants question why XRP has not reacted strongly despite the historic ETF launch from Canary Capital, which saw record demand on day one.
Two ETF-driven scenarios with a similar result
Steingraber’s thesis centers around ETF accumulation dynamics. Based on his analysis, there are only two ways the market can evolve from here:
Scenario 1 — XRP remains near current price levels ETF issuers steadily accumulate XRP week after week until they hold most of the circulating supply. This slow absorption ultimately reduces supply on the open market, creating upward pressure later.
Scenario 2 — XRP price rises earlier If price appreciation begins before heavy absorption takes place, the increasing value of XRP naturally reduces the accumulation rate, as issuers can purchase fewer tokens per dollar.
Either way, Steingraber argues that the directional outcome remains the same: demand increases faster than available supply, supporting higher long-term prices.
ETFs are affecting XRP — but the impact is not immediately visible
To understand the slow-moving market reaction, XRP Foundation Board Director Fabio Marzella explained that ETF inflows do not translate into instant spot buy pressure. One reason is settlement timing.
All U.S. ETFs operate on a T+1 settlement cycle, meaning issuers receive investor funds the next business day — not instantly. As a result, even if large investor inflows hit on day one, ETF issuers do not begin acquiring XRP until later, spreading demand across multiple days or weeks.
Additionally, ETF issuers chiefly source XRP from OTC desks rather than public exchanges. These transactions happen outside of open markets and are not reflected in public trading activity. This leads to a calmer price chart even while sizeable ETF accumulation is taking place in the background.
According to Marzella, this is one of the main reasons the market appears unaffected despite ETF inflows.
Historic ETF launch meets a bearish crypto backdrop
The debut of XRPC — the first XRP ETF — drew $245 million in inflows on day one, marking one of the strongest ETF launches of 2025. But the timing worked against immediate performance. The ETF entered the market while Bitcoin dropped below $100,000 and weighed down the broader crypto sector.
Even with record ETF demand, XRP retreated from $2.52 to around $2.25 during that period. Analysts note that when broad market sentiment weakens, altcoins often underperform regardless of their individual fundamentals.
Still, enthusiasm surrounding XRP ETFs has not slowed. Six additional ETFs from institutional issuers — including Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares — are scheduled to follow.
Projections show what sustained ETF demand could mean
Analysts estimate that if the seven ETFs collectively attract $600 million per month, inflows could reach $7.2 billion over the course of a year.
Several valuation models suggest that ETF inflows have a multiplier effect because demand reduces available market liquidity. Using a conservative 100x multiplier, analysts calculate that $7.2 billion in ETF-driven demand could translate into $720 billion in added market capitalization.
Based on current supply estimates, this valuation would price XRP near the $14 range — but only under favorable market conditions.
Macro environment remains the key variable
ETF-driven accumulation alone cannot overpower large-scale risk-off sentiment. Crypto markets continue to face global macroeconomic uncertainty, mixed liquidity conditions, and aggressive volatility. For that reason, analysts say the ETF benefit will play out over time rather than instantly.
The short-term price reaction may remain muted while ETFs accumulate in the background. However, analysts note that long-term accumulation has historically been one of the strongest foundations for major XRP cycles.
Bottom line
The post-ETF era for XRP has begun — but its effects won’t fully appear overnight. ETF accumulation has already started, settlement timing delays the visible buying, and OTC sourcing hides large flows from the spot market.
For now, the short-term trend remains influenced by Bitcoin and macro sentiment, while long-term demand continues building quietly beneath the surface. How fast the next phase of the cycle emerges depends less on excitement — and more on time.
