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XRP is once again under pressure as analysts spotlight a technical setup that has historically preceded steep declines. Market commentator Steph is Crypto has raised alarms over the latest weekly close below the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), a trend that has repeatedly led to deeper losses for the asset over the past seven years.
The warning arrives during a critical period for XRP. The cryptocurrency has shed more than 14% in the last week, trading at $2.14, and remains 41.3% below its yearly peak of $3.65 set in July. While sentiment across the broader crypto market remains weak, the SMA comparison suggests that downside risk may not be over.
Weekly close below the SMA points to historical danger zones
According to Steph, XRP closing a weekly candle below its 50-week SMA has been one of the most reliable bearish indicators for the asset. Over the years, this technical event has been followed by significant drawdowns.
Two notable instances stand out:
June 2018 — 57.7% decline XRP closed below the 50-week SMA during its correction from the $3.31 high. Within ten weeks, price fell from $0.58 to $0.245, marking a drop of more than half.
January 2022 — 74% decline XRP formed another weekly close below the 50-week SMA at $0.85, and continued plunging to $0.28 by June 2022.
Now, a third similar pattern has emerged. Two weeks ago, XRP closed the week at $2.36, below the 50-week SMA level of $2.54. Since then, it has already fallen another 9%.
Steph summarized the setup bluntly:
“This looks very dangerous for XRP.”
If history repeats even the less severe version of this trend, XRP could fall to $0.998 — roughly $1. If the harsher scenario plays out, XRP could decline toward $0.61, revisiting prices last seen before the November 2024 rally.
Why some analysts doubt a full repeat of past collapses
Despite the historical precedents, several factors may limit downside risk this time. Unlike previous SMA breakdowns, XRP currently benefits from:
• growing institutional demand • emerging spot ETFs • increasing Ripple partnerships • regulatory clarity following key court rulings • treasury companies accumulating digital assets
These structural developments did not exist during the 2018 or 2022 crashes. For this reason, many analysts argue that while downside pressure remains, a full 74% correction may be unlikely.
A surprising silver lining appears on another bearish signal
Steph also pointed to a different trend — and unlike the SMA signal, this one offers potential optimism.
XRP formed a death cross on the daily chart on November 9, where the 50-day moving average dropped below the 200-day moving average. Historically, this pattern suggests weakening momentum and is typically considered bearish.
Since the crossover, XRP has declined just 6%, and historical patterns show that sharper declines often follow the death cross — but in XRP’s case, past death crosses have also marked the end of the worst phase of the sell-off.
Steph noted that the same pattern occurred:
• in 2017, before XRP’s major bull run • again in 2020, shortly before another large upward cycle
In both cases, XRP collapsed further immediately after the death cross — then reversed and began its rapid upward phase.
What traders are watching next
Analysts say the next few weeks will determine whether the 50-week SMA breakdown turns into another historical cascade or if XRP can avoid a deep collapse due to strong institutional fundamentals.
Most are focused on three critical indicators:
• whether XRP closes further weekly candles below the 50-week SMA • whether the death cross coincides with acceleration or stabilization • whether ETF flows begin visibly impacting spot liquidity
So far, ETF issuers have continued accumulating despite the downturn, but the effects are masked by OTC sourcing and the T+1 settlement cycle.
Bottom line
The market faces two conflicting narratives:
• short-term chart signals warn of deeper losses • long-term catalysts continue strengthening beneath the surface
For now, short-term volatility may persist — especially if the historical SMA pattern repeats. But if past death-cross recovery patterns and ETF accumulation play out again, analysts say the next major rally could begin from a lower base.
The coming weeks will show whether XRP’s current weakness is the start of a deeper correction — or the final shakeout before its next expansion phase.
