Aptos (APT) has struggled with steady selling pressure over the past two months, and recent token unlock events may exacerbate these challenges. With increasing unlocks and panicked sentiment in the market, APT could face more downside in the near future.

Selling Pressure Weighs on Aptos

The past few months have shown a persistent downtrend for Aptos, with bearish momentum being the dominant force. According to technical analysis, the relative strength index (RSI) has indicated that the downward pressure has remained unchanged since December 2024. Despite some attempts to recover, the broader market structure remains weak, and this has made it difficult for bulls to gain any sustained momentum.

Aptos recently tested a key support level, hovering around $5—an important psychological price point. While a short-term bounce is possible from this support level, the big question remains: Can this bounce lead to a full trend reversal, or is it merely a temporary respite before the downtrend resumes?

The Importance of Market Structure and Liquidity

In mid-December 2024, Aptos lost its bullish order block just above the $11 level, and since then, the market structure has shifted to a bearish bias. The attempts made by buyers to recover have largely failed, with each rally quickly being met by selling pressure.

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) chart highlights that selling pressure has consistently outpaced buying, further confirming the overall bearish sentiment. Even during recent recoveries, the price movements have resembled liquidity grabs rather than genuine upward trends. This has added to market uncertainty and made any upward price action short-lived.

Additionally, the price of Aptos has shown a notable lack of relative strength compared to Bitcoin (BTC). While Bitcoin has appreciated by 78% since last August, Aptos has only increased by 11.87%. This disparity in performance is sapping the conviction of bulls, making it more challenging for the token to stage a meaningful recovery.

Key Price Levels to Watch

From a technical perspective, the $5-level is seen as a critical support area for Aptos. This level marks the beginning of a strong rally from August 2024, and if APT manages to stay above it, a temporary bounce could be expected. The $5.5 liquidity cluster, identified on the 1-week heatmap, is a likely candidate for a short-term bullish reversal.

Swing traders may target a bounce from the $5.34-$5.5 range with the hope of pushing the price toward $6.30. However, it’s important to take profits quickly, given the current market sentiment that remains predominantly altcoin-averse. With the broader market still uncertain, aggressive profit-taking strategies are prudent for short-term traders.

Unlocking Concerns and Market Sentiment

One of the key challenges for Aptos holders is the ongoing token unlock process. According to CoinMarketCap, 50% of Aptos’ total supply is still locked, meaning that there is a significant amount of tokens yet to be released into the market. As these tokens are unlocked, additional selling pressure may drive the price lower, unless demand sees a substantial increase.

Without a significant surge in demand or a favorable “altseason” where altcoins experience broad-based growth, these unlocks could put considerable downward pressure on APT’s price. Holders should be cautious, as the combination of market sentiment and additional unlocks could worsen the situation for APT in the near term.

Conclusion

Aptos remains under significant selling pressure, and the ongoing token unlock events could exacerbate this downward trend. Although there is potential for short-term price bounces from key support levels like $5, the overall market structure is bearish, and recovery efforts have largely been unsuccessful so far. For investors, it’s crucial to be cautious and monitor market sentiment closely. Until demand increases or the broader market conditions change, Aptos holders may face further pain as the token unlocks continue to influence the market.