Arbitrum (ARB), once riding high on bullish momentum during late 2024, is now grappling with severe downward pressure. The token has entered a deeply bearish trend across both weekly and daily timeframes, with critical support levels now under threat. A growing wave of sell-side volume and regular token unlocks are fueling a climate of fear, with analysts warning that a failure to hold the $0.30 mark could pave the way for a sharp 40% correction.

ARB experienced a notable 140% surge in November and December of 2024 during a broader market rally. However, this rally ultimately failed to reverse the macro downtrend. Instead, it now appears that ARB’s brief upside was simply a relief rally within a longer-term bearish structure.

Technical indicators support this negative outlook. On the weekly chart, ARB has maintained a bearish structure since March 2024. Despite periodic bullish attempts, the token failed to breach key resistance at $1.19 in May, and a new low was formed in April 2025. This failure to form a higher high and subsequent lower lows confirms a downtrend that’s now nearly a year in duration.

Adding fuel to the fire are the monthly token unlocks, which continue to increase selling pressure. On June 16, another 92.63 million ARB tokens—roughly $27.6 million worth—were unlocked as part of the project’s scheduled three-year linear unlock program. While such unlocks are planned and expected, their timing in a bearish market only serves to deepen investor concerns.

Momentum indicators offer little comfort. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart reflects persistent bearish momentum, staying well below the neutral 50 mark. Meanwhile, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator has dropped to new lows, confirming that recent price action is backed by high selling volume—another red flag for bulls.

Zooming into the daily timeframe, the picture grows more urgent. Over just the past eight days, ARB has shed 28% of its value, a steep drop even in the often-volatile world of crypto. What’s particularly striking is that this decline has occurred even as Bitcoin (BTC) has held strong above the critical $100,000 psychological level. ARB’s weakness is therefore not tied to broader market movements, but rather stems from internal structural issues and specific selling dynamics.

The most important technical level right now is the $0.298 mark, which corresponds to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous rally. If ARB closes below this level on the daily or weekly chart, it would likely trigger a further slide toward the next key target: $0.18. This zone represents the 123.6% Fibonacci extension to the downside, and would imply a nearly 40% drawdown from current prices.

However, there is a potential buffer zone that may slow or temporarily halt the decline. The $0.265–$0.28 area is expected to act as a demand zone where some buyers may step in. But with sentiment weakening, even this zone may not hold for long unless broader market support returns or Arbitrum sees a shift in fundamentals.

Currently, the bearish outlook is reinforced by a combination of high-volume selling, repeated token unlocks, and the absence of bullish catalysts. If bulls fail to defend the $0.30 level, short sellers and bearish momentum traders may dominate the market, pushing the price further down toward the $0.18 target.

In summary, Arbitrum’s technical setup paints a grim picture. Despite previous attempts at recovery, the trend has remained firmly bearish. With both weekly and daily structures breaking down and no clear bullish catalyst in sight, the risk of a deeper correction looms large. For now, all eyes are on the $0.30 support level—its defense or breakdown may determine whether ARB stabilizes or plunges into deeper territory.