The next big move in the crypto ETF race could be coming—and XRP is at the center of it. Following signs of progress in the long-running legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), speculation is heating up that BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, may soon consider introducing an XRP exchange-traded fund.

While no official XRP ETF filing has been made by BlackRock, recent behind-the-scenes activity suggests that tides may be shifting. On May 9, BlackRock held a closed-door meeting with the SEC’s crypto-focused task force. The discussion reportedly focused on staking, options for crypto ETFs, and tokenizing traditional financial securities. Though XRP wasn’t confirmed to be the central topic, the broader scope of the meeting hinted that BlackRock is eyeing future expansions beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Currently, BlackRock’s ETF offerings remain centered on Bitcoin and Ethereum, the only two cryptocurrencies it has actively pursued with the SEC. In late 2024, Jay Jacobs, head of BlackRock’s ETF division, stated that altcoins like XRP were “not a priority at the moment.” Still, industry analysts say the picture could change quickly—especially if the regulatory outlook for XRP clears.

That turning point may already be underway. Ripple and the SEC recently submitted filings aimed at resolving their years-long legal dispute. If a settlement is reached and XRP is no longer viewed as a security under U.S. law, major financial institutions may feel far more comfortable entering the XRP market. This would pave the way for a formal ETF application from BlackRock, which tends to move only when legal clarity and institutional demand are firmly in place.

Market sentiment is already shifting. XRP has surged 8% over the past week, part of a broader rally in the cryptocurrency market. At the same time, decentralized prediction platform Polymarket shows a rising probability of an XRP ETF approval, with odds currently sitting at 77%—up from just over 60% two months ago. Some forecasts have even projected approval odds reaching 82% by the end of 2025.

Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store and a respected voice in the ETF space, noted that BlackRock and other major issuers may not be able to ignore XRP much longer. “It’s the third-largest non-stablecoin crypto by market cap,” he said. “If the regulatory clouds clear, it’s only logical that top issuers like BlackRock would explore ETF products based on it.”

Investor interest is another major factor. Analyst Altcoin Gordon revealed that many of BlackRock’s ultra-high-net-worth clients—those with $50 million or more—are increasingly showing interest in crypto assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. While Gordon hinted that “big news” related to XRP may be on the way, skeptics on social media have pressed for more concrete evidence.

Even so, the interest from asset managers is real. Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and Bitwise have already submitted filings for XRP ETFs, hoping to capitalize on Ripple’s growing momentum. However, none carry the weight of BlackRock, whose success with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has already reshaped institutional adoption in the crypto space.

The potential impact of a BlackRock-backed XRP ETF cannot be overstated. Such a move would bring significant institutional capital into XRP, validating its use case not only as a cross-border payments solution but also as a mainstream investment asset. It would also signal broader confidence in the regulatory environment surrounding altcoins in the U.S.

For now, the crypto world watches and waits. The outcome of Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC remains the key catalyst. If the case concludes in Ripple’s favor, it could unlock a domino effect—beginning with a flood of institutional interest and possibly ending with the introduction of one of the most anticipated ETFs in crypto history.