Cardano (ADA) has made a modest 2% gain, currently trading at approximately $0.63, fluctuating within a tight range between $0.625 and $0.64. Despite a broader recovery in the crypto market, Cardano has remained stuck below its key resistance level of $0.65. This price action indicates that while there’s slight upward momentum, ADA continues to face significant hurdles in breaking past its resistance.

Short-Term Price Analysis

Cardano’s short-term price action indicates it is still in a consolidation phase. ADA has repeatedly failed to break above the critical $0.65 resistance level, signaling continued bearish sentiment in the market. Over the past 24 hours, the coin attempted a rally but struggled to gain any significant traction. The inability to close above $0.65 suggests that Cardano remains trapped in a bearish zone.

However, there is still hope for a potential rally. If ADA can break out of its current consolidation and close four consecutive candles above $0.6425, it could see a 5.5% price surge, reaching the $0.67 mark. This would suggest that the coin is breaking free from its bearish range and heading towards a stronger bullish trend.

Bearish Scenarios

On the other hand, if ADA fails to break the $0.6425 level and closes a daily candle below $0.62, a 7% drop could follow, pushing the price down to $0.58. This bearish scenario would suggest further weakness and a potential decline in momentum, sending ADA closer to its lower support levels.

Bullish On-Chain Metrics

While technical indicators show a challenging path for Cardano, on-chain metrics point to a more bullish outlook. According to on-chain analytics firm Coinglass, there has been increased bullish activity in the market. The data reveals that long positions on ADA are becoming over-leveraged at around $0.618, with $5.90 million worth of long positions held at this level. Meanwhile, short positions at the $0.645 level have also seen significant activity, with $3.67 million worth of short positions accumulated.

These over-leveraged levels suggest that there is heightened market activity, with a significant amount of traders betting on both long and short positions. If ADA breaks through the consolidation phase and climbs above $0.6425, it could trigger a shift in market sentiment, driving the price higher as these over-leveraged positions unwind.

ADA Outflow and Accumulation

Another important factor in ADA’s current market dynamics is the significant outflow of ADA from exchanges. According to Coinglass, $14.65 million worth of ADA tokens have left exchanges in recent days. This suggests that long-term holders are accumulating the asset, indicating confidence in the future potential of ADA. This accumulation could play a pivotal role in supporting ADA’s price and driving it back toward the $0.65 resistance level.

Conclusion

Cardano’s price remains in a consolidation phase as of March 1, 2025, with its key resistance at $0.65 continuing to hold strong. While technical analysis shows potential for further downside if ADA fails to break higher, bullish on-chain metrics indicate that investors are becoming more engaged and that the market sentiment could shift in favor of the bulls.

If ADA manages to clear the $0.6425 level and sustain a rally, it could head towards the $0.67 mark, representing a 5.5% upside potential. However, failure to hold key support levels could lead to a 7% decline, bringing the price closer to $0.58. With ongoing accumulation and strong investor sentiment, ADA might be poised for a potential breakout, but traders should remain cautious and watch for signs of momentum change.