The likelihood of Cardano (ADA) receiving approval for a spot ETF has surged to 55%, according to data from prediction market platform Polymarket. This marks a notable 45% increase in the odds compared to the start of 2025, reflecting growing confidence among traders and analysts in the possibility of regulatory approval before the end of the year.

Optimism Surrounding Cardano ETF Approval

The surge in odds has generated a significant buzz in the cryptocurrency community. Traders are increasingly optimistic that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve an ADA spot ETF, following the successful approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs last year. This potential approval could open the floodgates for institutional investment in Cardano, which would likely drive up its adoption and price.

The Cardano network, known for its proof-of-stake consensus mechanism and active ecosystem developments, has become an attractive option for institutional investors looking for a blockchain that prioritizes security, scalability, and sustainability. This could further enhance Cardano’s appeal to mainstream investors and bolster its growing reputation as a major cryptocurrency player.

Increased Confidence Boosts Network Activity

The rising confidence in a Cardano ETF approval has had a positive effect on the network’s activity. According to data from Cardanoscan, the blockchain has seen a significant increase in transaction volumes, reaching daily transaction counts between 10,000 and 50,000 in the past few weeks.

From April 30 to May 6, daily transactions ranged from 30,000 to 35,000. However, starting on May 7, the volume began to climb significantly, with daily transactions regularly surpassing 40,000 and hitting almost 50,000 on May 15. These figures suggest that Cardano’s ecosystem is not only experiencing consistent growth but is also benefiting from increased real-world use, as opposed to speculative trading alone.

While transaction counts are still below their all-time highs, the steady increase in activity is a promising sign of Cardano’s growing adoption and utility. A surge in network activity is often seen as an indicator of an asset’s viability beyond just price speculation.

Factors Influencing Cardano ETF Approval

Despite the optimism, some analysts caution against overly high expectations. Several factors could still influence the SEC’s decision on Cardano’s ETF approval. While the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has paved the way for broader institutional crypto investment products, the regulatory environment surrounding cryptocurrencies remains fluid and subject to change.

In addition, while Cardano’s fundamentals, such as its strong technological foundation and ecosystem developments, make it an appealing option, the SEC may need more time to assess how Cardano fits into the broader regulatory landscape. This ongoing scrutiny could delay the approval process or impact the final decision.

What Cardano ETF Approval Would Mean

The approval of a Cardano ETF would mark a milestone for the cryptocurrency, positioning it alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of mainstream investment products. Institutional investors, who are often hesitant to directly invest in cryptocurrencies due to regulatory concerns, would have a new and regulated avenue for exposure to ADA.

Such an event would likely drive increased demand for the token, propelling its price higher and attracting further attention to the Cardano ecosystem. Moreover, the ETF approval would signal greater regulatory clarity for the broader cryptocurrency market, helping to foster trust among both retail and institutional investors.

In conclusion, the possibility of a Cardano ETF approval has gained significant traction in 2025, with Polymarket predicting a 55% chance of approval by the end of the year. This growing optimism is reflected in increased network activity, with transaction volumes rising steadily. While there are still uncertainties surrounding the approval process, the confidence in Cardano’s future is evident in both its market performance and the ongoing development of its blockchain ecosystem.