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Xavier Becerra went into primary day as the heavy favorite. Kalshi’s prediction market had him priced at 95% to advance to the general election — a number that pretty much tells the whole story before a single official result drops.
Republican Steve Hilton, by contrast, sat at just 4% on that same market. That gap is brutal. And it didn’t happen by accident.
How Becerra Got Here
Back in early April, Becerra was polling at 5%. His odds on Kalshi’s governor market were below 1%. Not exactly the trajectory of a frontrunner. But races shift, candidates stumble, and Becerra caught a break when Eric Swalwell dropped out of the contest. That departure opened up a chunk of the electorate, and Becerra moved fast to grab it.
By primary day, the polls backed up what the markets were already pricing in. An Emerson College poll had Becerra at 28%, with Tom Steyer at 22% and Hilton at 21%. The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the Public Policy Institute of California ran their own surveys and landed in roughly the same place — Becerra ahead, the rest bunched behind him. Slightly different numbers depending on who you ask, but the direction was consistent.
The field is crowded. It’s basically been Becerra’s race to lose for weeks, though.
Steyer’s $200 Million Bet
Tom Steyer didn’t go quietly. He spent $200 million on his campaign — a staggering number by any measure — and leaned hard into social media influencers to widen his reach in the final stretch. Whether that kind of spending can actually move votes at this stage of a race is unclear, but it clearly moved his Kalshi numbers. By primary day, Steyer’s odds on Kalshi’s advancer market had climbed to 40%. That’s not nothing.
Still, 40% is not 95%. Steyer’s money bought him visibility and probably kept him competitive in the final polling averages, but it didn’t overtake Becerra’s lead. The gap between them in the Emerson poll — 28% to 22% — isn’t enormous, but Becerra’s consistency across multiple polling outfits gave him a sturdier floor.
Steyer’s late surge, funded by that $200 million war chest, made the race feel tighter than the markets suggested. Probably a good story for his campaign to tell. Whether it translates to actual ballots is a different question entirely.
Trump’s Endorsement and Hilton’s Ceiling
Hilton’s situation is its own kind of complicated. President Donald Trump endorsed him, which might seem like a boost on paper. But California isn’t exactly Trump country, and reports citing The New York Times seemed to back up what the markets were already showing — the endorsement may have hurt more than it helped. Hilton was sitting at 21% in the Emerson poll, roughly tied with Steyer, but his 4% on Kalshi’s market told a harsher story about his actual path forward.
It’s worth noting that Kalshi’s figures are a trading snapshot. They move. They’ve moved throughout this race, and they’ll keep moving as results come in. That’s kind of the point — these markets are supposed to capture real-time shifts in how people see the probabilities, not just freeze a moment in time.
But 4% is a hard number to spin.
Becerra’s climb from below 1% in the governor market to 95% on primary day is pretty much the whole arc of this race compressed into a single data point. He started low, Swalwell left, the field consolidated around him, and the polls followed. Steyer threw money at the problem and got competitive but not dominant. Hilton got a Trump endorsement that seems to have landed badly in a state where that brand carries real risk.
The actual votes are what matter now. Prediction markets are good at capturing momentum and sentiment — they’re not vote counters. Becerra’s 28% in the Emerson poll sounds strong until you remember that 72% of respondents picked someone else. California’s top-two primary system means the top two finishers advance regardless of party, so the math isn’t purely about winning outright.
Steyer at 40% on the advancer market means the market thinks there’s a real shot he finishes second. That’s the race within the race at this point — who joins Becerra in the general. And that question was very much open as polls closed.
Becerra started primary day at 95%. Steyer at 40% to advance. Hilton at 4%.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Kalshi’s prediction market show for Becerra on primary day?
Kalshi priced Becerra at a 95% chance to advance to the general election, making him the overwhelming favorite heading into the close of primary voting.
How much did Tom Steyer spend on his California governor campaign?
Steyer spent $200 million on his campaign, including investments in social media influencers, pushing his odds on Kalshi’s advancer market to 40% by primary day.
Why It Matters
Becerra's commanding position in the prediction market reflects the broader narrative of his political resurgence and the effectiveness of his campaign strategies, highlighting the increasing reliance on predictive markets as a barometer for electoral outcomes. This discrepancy in market confidence between Becerra and his opponent underscores the challenges faced by candidates with low polling numbers, reinforcing the notion that early voter sentiment can significantly influence perceived viability in elections. Such dynamics are crucial for stakeholders in the political arena, including investors and strategists, as they shape their decisions based on market signals.
