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Bitcoin fell below $67,000 this week, marking its weakest level since August. The decline coincided with a significant withdrawal of capital from US spot Bitcoin ETFs as investors prepare for the upcoming initial public offering of Anthropic. The company is scheduled to price its shares on Nov. 18, with trading set to begin on the Nasdaq on Nov. 19.
As of 17:38 UTC, Bitcoin traded at $64,602, -1.7% over 24 hours, with $49.2 billion in 24-hour volume.
ETF Outflows And Market Pressure
Approximately $2.35 billion has flowed out of US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past two weeks. BlackRock’s IBIT fund has led the exodus, recording 11 consecutive sessions of redemptions. This single fund accounts for roughly 90% of the outflows recorded in November. Earlier in the week, Bitcoin crashed below the $70,000 mark, triggering liquidations that topped $1.6 billion.
Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered suggested that the heavy selling of spot Bitcoin ETFs, partly to free up cash for the SpaceX IPO previously, was likely to ease once the listing began. However, the current market dynamics show continued pressure as the Anthropic listing approaches. The order books for Anthropic shares are reported to be about six times oversubscribed, with the company aiming to raise $64.4 billion.
Comparison To The SpaceX Cycle
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen overlaid Bitcoin’s price performance in the 30 days before and after the SpaceX IPO with its current trajectory leading up to the Anthropic listing. In the run-up to SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO in June, Bitcoin fell about 28% from its May peak. The asset bottomed near $59,000 a week before the SpaceX listing, touching a specific low of $59,375 on June 5. Kendrick identified that June 5 low as the cycle low.
More than $5.72 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions since mid-May were tied to the SpaceX offering. In Cowen’s analysis, Bitcoin was down about 20% by the SpaceX listing day. Following the listing, the price dipped to roughly 25% below its starting point before stabilizing, eventually rallying 37% from the low. SpaceX initially planned to allocate around 30% of its deal to retail investors but trimmed it to the low 20% range. Anthropic expects to allocate up to 20% of its IPO shares to retail investors, a portion valued at $11.55 billion to $12.87 billion at its current price range.
Anthropic has also secured a separate $26 billion private placement funded by compute suppliers including Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft. The market is also watching the Federal Reserve, with Governor Christopher Waller supporting a December rate hike. CME FedWatch odds for a December rate hike stand at 96.3%. For Bitcoin bulls, the first level to reclaim is $70,000. The $76,000 zone represents the next key hurdle, followed by the $80,000 to $82,000 range. A break below this week’s low near $67,000 could open the door for a move toward the $59,000 to $60,000 area.
