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Real estate investor Grant Cardone has proposed a $1 million wager that Bitcoin will reach a price of at least $126,210.50 by October 28, 2028. The challenge is directed at venture capitalist Jason Calacanis, who recently predicted that the cryptocurrency would never surpass its previous all-time high.
The $1 Million Challenge
The dispute originated on October 27, when Calacanis shared a pessimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s future performance. He argued that investors should consider shifting their attention toward artificial intelligence, suggesting that Bitcoin offers fewer opportunities for future growth compared to other emerging technologies.
Calacanis specifically predicted that Bitcoin would revisit the $57,000 level and fail to exceed its prior record. He cited withdrawals from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds as evidence of weakening demand, indicating that capital is moving away from the asset.
Cardone responded the following day with a direct financial counter-proposal. He offered to bet $1 million that Bitcoin would reach at least $126,210.50 by October 28, 2028. This target price is slightly higher than Bitcoin’s October 2025 record of approximately $126,080.
Cardone suggested that the wagered funds be placed with an independent third party to ensure that the winner receives payment. As of the latest reports, the wager remains a proposal and has not been confirmed as a binding agreement. Calacanis has responded publicly to the challenge but has not accepted Cardone’s specific terms.
Supporters And Market Forecasts
Cardone is not the only figure challenging Calacanis’ bearish prediction. Bitcoin advocate Fred Krueger has proposed a separate $1 million wager, though his suggested deadline extends to October 2036. Hollywood producer and Bitcoin supporter Terence Michael also offered to participate in the dispute.
Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3, and Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, both expressed interest in supporting Cardone’s challenge. These reactions highlight the division among investors regarding Bitcoin’s trajectory, with some viewing the recent downturn as a temporary correction and others questioning whether the asset can regain its previous momentum.
The debate arrives alongside a more optimistic long-term forecast from investment manager Bitwise. In its Bitcoin outlook released on October 28, Bitwise raised its projected Bitcoin price for 2036 to approximately $1.6 million. This projection implies an estimated compound annual growth rate of 34.3%.
Bitwise bases its forecast on growing institutional adoption, limited Bitcoin supply, and demand for assets that preserve purchasing power over time. The company also identified significant risks to this outlook, including quantum computing, technological disruption, and unfavorable regulatory changes.
Market Context
When Cardone issued his challenge, Bitcoin was trading near $80,847. This price level was approximately 36% below the asset’s previous peak. Reaching Cardone’s target of $126,210.50 from the trading price at the time of the challenge would require a gain of roughly 56%.
While Bitcoin has experienced larger percentage moves during previous market cycles, the current recovery would depend on several factors, including institutional investment, ETF demand, economic conditions, and regulatory developments. For now, no million-dollar agreement has been finalized between Cardone and Calacanis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Grant Cardone’s proposed Bitcoin price target?
Cardone proposed a target price of $126,210.50, which is slightly higher than Bitcoin’s October 2025 record of approximately $126,080.
Has Jason Calacanis accepted the $1 million wager?
Calacanis has responded publicly but has not accepted Cardone’s terms, leaving the wager as a proposal rather than a confirmed agreement.
