Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing clear signs of building momentum for a significant price breakout after months of relative quiet. This emerging pattern is underpinned by a notable shift in market behavior, where smaller retail investors seem to be exiting their positions, while large holders—often called whales—are quietly accumulating the token. On-chain data reveals that wallets holding between 10 and 1 million DOGE have been declining since late June into early July, signaling that many smaller investors are reducing their exposure. In contrast, whale wallets, those holding from 1 million to 100 million DOGE, have been increasing their holdings. This trend is further reinforced by an increase in large-value DOGE transactions exceeding $100,000 and even $1 million, typically indicative of major market moves on the horizon.

From a technical perspective, Dogecoin is currently confined within a falling wedge pattern on its daily chart, a formation that frequently precedes sharp upward price movements. Despite the downward price trend from its previous peak near $0.48, DOGE has maintained a solid multi-year support level around $0.13. This key support zone has been tested several times during the first half of 2025, but it has remained intact, suggesting strong buying interest at that level. The narrowing wedge pattern suggests building pressure in the market, increasing the chances of a breakout. Historically, DOGE has experienced rapid price increases following breakouts from such consolidations. Still, the repeated retests of the $0.13 support level mean traders must remain cautious, as a breakdown below this point could trigger further declines.

Supporting this technical outlook is the analysis from a well-known trader, Tardigrade, who has identified a long-term recurring pattern in Dogecoin’s price behavior. His observations point out that DOGE has formed significant bottoms roughly every five years—in 2015, 2020, and again in 2023. Each cycle involved the token building higher lows before experiencing substantial upward price surges. According to this perspective, DOGE is currently preparing for a similar breakout phase during the second half of 2025. If this historical trend holds, the asset could potentially rally to around $3.40, a level that might seem ambitious but is within reach given past price trajectories.

The contrasting behaviors between retail investors and whales highlight a critical phase in Dogecoin’s price cycle. While retail investors are seemingly taking profits or reducing risk by exiting, whale accumulation indicates confidence in the token’s long-term prospects. This dynamic—where large holders absorb supply while smaller holders retreat—is often a precursor to a price surge, as whales position themselves for an upward move by acquiring assets at discounted prices. The spike in large transactions further supports this, showing increased activity among institutional or high-net-worth investors.

Moreover, the strong multi-year support around $0.13 serves as a psychological and technical floor for Dogecoin. This level has proven resilient against multiple tests, indicating that buyers are stepping in to prevent further declines. As the falling wedge pattern tightens, the pressure builds for a breakout in either direction. A move above the wedge’s upper boundary could unlock significant upside potential, while a break below the support could signal a bearish phase, making the $0.13 level critical to watch.

Traders and investors should also consider market sentiment and external factors impacting cryptocurrency markets in general. Despite the positive technical signs and whale accumulation, macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, or broader market trends could influence DOGE’s trajectory. Therefore, while the technical setup and on-chain data provide a strong case for a potential rally, it is essential to monitor overall market conditions and sentiment.

In conclusion, Dogecoin’s current market conditions suggest a notable buildup for a possible breakout. The decline in retail holders coupled with an increase in whale accumulation points to silent but significant accumulation. The falling wedge pattern combined with firm support near $0.13 adds a technical foundation for a potential price surge. The long-term repeating cycle identified by traders adds further weight to bullish expectations, with a possible target price around $3.40 if the pattern plays out as anticipated. However, caution is warranted given the multiple tests of the support level and the broader market’s volatility. Dogecoin remains one of the most closely watched cryptocurrencies in 2025, with the next few months potentially delivering significant price action that could reshape its market standing.