Dogecoin (DOGE), the largest cryptocoin by market cap, is navigating a difficult retracement phase after failing to overcome a crucial resistance level at $0.20. Although the broader cryptocurrency market is attempting to stabilize, the road to recovery for DOGE appears slow and uncertain, with several warning signs suggesting more volatility in the short term.

At press time, DOGE was trading below key technical levels, and the bearish market structure on the daily chart indicates that further downside cannot be ruled out. However, on-chain signals also suggest the possibility of accumulation, meaning long-term investors may want to prepare for potential buying opportunities—despite the likelihood of more price swings ahead.

Bearish Market Structure Holds DOGE Below Key Levels

Dogecoin’s price action over the past few weeks has shown clear signs of bearish dominance. The cryptocoin had previously rallied in early May, but recent losses have brought it back below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This level, drawn from the May swing high to the latest local low, is a key indicator of failed bullish momentum.

The daily chart reveals a consistent trend of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the ongoing bearish market structure. DOGE has repeatedly found support around the $0.17 zone, which also coincides with a notable liquidity cluster. This level may be tested again in the coming days, particularly if Bitcoin and the broader market continue to trade under pressure.

Despite minor rebounds, Dogecoin has been unable to reclaim the $0.20 resistance level—an area that must be flipped into support for bulls to regain control.

On-Chain Data Points to Accumulation, But No Immediate Rally

While Dogecoin’s price action remains weak, on-chain metrics are flashing early signs of possible accumulation. One such indicator is the Network Value to Transactions Signal (NVTS), a metric that compares Dogecoin’s market cap to its transaction volume. NVTS is considered a leading indicator of undervaluation or overvaluation based on network activity.

Currently, DOGE’s NVTS is significantly lower than it was during the May–June 2024 period, indicating that the asset might be undervalued relative to its network utility. This could signal a buying opportunity for long-term investors who believe in the cryptocoin potential, especially as part of a diversified portfolio.

Another encouraging sign comes from Glassnode’s Exchange Net Position Change metric. In early June, the net flow of DOGE onto exchanges turned negative. This means more DOGE is being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited—a pattern that typically aligns with accumulation.

That said, it’s important to temper expectations. Similar accumulation patterns were observed in January 2025, but DOGE continued to trend downward for several months afterward. Accumulation does not always translate into immediate price appreciation—especially in a bearish macro environment.

Volatility Remains the Dominant Theme

Given the current landscape, traders and investors should brace for continued volatility in DOGE’s price. Bitcoin’s recent rejection at $110,000 has been triggering a repetitive weekly cycle of sharp Friday sell-offs, followed by weekend ranging and a tentative Monday recovery. If this pattern continues, Dogecoin could see short-term rebounds—but they are unlikely to be sustainable unless broader market conditions improve.

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator for DOGE also confirms a lack of bullish conviction. Selling pressure remains dominant, and volume trends suggest that sellers are still in control despite temporary price recoveries.

Caution for Traders, Strategy for Long-Term Investors

In summary, Dogecoin’s outlook remains mixed. On the one hand, the asset is structurally bearish, with a possible dip to $0.17 on the horizon. On the other hand, on-chain signals indicate that accumulation may be underway, suggesting long-term holders are taking advantage of the recent dip.

For short-term traders, caution is advised. The price may continue to slide before any meaningful recovery takes place. However, long-term investors may consider using strategies like dollar-cost averaging (DCA) to slowly accumulate DOGE, particularly if prices fall further toward key support levels.

Until Dogecoin can decisively break above $0.20 and hold it, the path forward will likely remain choppy—and investors should be prepared for turbulence.