Dogecoin [DOGE] is once again under pressure, trading back near the crucial $0.17 support level after a sharp correction from its May highs. The token has now lost about 31% of its value from last month’s peak, prompting some major holders to reconsider their positions. Among them, a significant inflow of 400 million DOGE into Binance has raised alarm bells across the market.

The movement of this large volume suggests that some holders, likely those who bought in earlier during the rally, are now seeking an exit at breakeven prices. Whether they follow through with selling or decide to hold on amid fear of missing out (FOMO) could determine whether DOGE stabilizes above $0.17—or slides further.

A deeper dive into on-chain data paints a concerning picture. Roughly 30% of all DOGE addresses are now in the red, with acquisition prices higher than the current trading range near $0.18. This growing number of underwater wallets reflects rising pressure on the broader community, especially since the asset lost its key $0.20 support.

This shift has already triggered a wave of capitulation, particularly among short- to mid-term holders. Over $800 million in realized losses were recorded in just the past three days. The 400 million DOGE inflow into Binance adds to the evidence that many of these holders are preparing to sell into any short-lived price strength, aiming to cut their losses or exit near breakeven.

Interestingly, long-term holders appear to be sitting tight. The panic seems largely isolated to the more speculative end of the market—those who bought in during the last few months in hopes of riding another bullish wave. But as has often been the case with DOGE cycles, when short-term traders start to exit en masse, the resulting sell pressure drags prices down rapidly.

As DOGE attempted to reclaim higher levels recently, it ran into resistance at $0.25. This was the moment when short-term metrics began to shift significantly. The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) turned negative, marking the start of a capitulation phase for this group. This flip in sentiment triggered a domino effect, pushing DOGE below $0.20 and squeezing profit margins across the board.

Another concerning signal comes from the HODL Waves, which track how long coins are held before being moved. The 3–6 month holding cohort had grown its share of DOGE supply from 10% in March to 15.53% at the peak of the rally. However, following the price drop, this group began distributing their holdings. Their share has now fallen to 12.4%, signaling that many chose to sell rather than risk deeper losses.

This trend points to a weakening of conviction among mid-term investors, which could further destabilize DOGE’s price if selling continues. If the broader market doesn’t step in to absorb the excess supply, the $0.17 support level could face increasing stress.

So, what’s next for DOGE?

Technically, the price remains vulnerable unless there is a strong rebound backed by renewed buying interest. Reclaiming the $0.20 level would be an important step toward recovery, but until then, resistance near $0.25 remains a distant challenge.

If more smart money begins to fold rather than hold, the support zone could give way to lower price levels. Conversely, if recent inflows to exchanges are met with strong demand—as happened during earlier dips—DOGE may find the strength to stabilize and attempt another leg up.

For now, the market is at a critical juncture. The next few days will likely determine whether Dogecoin can defend its key support and stage a recovery—or if distribution pressure will drag the asset to fresh lows. Traders and investors alike should watch closely, as the balance between sellers exiting and buyers stepping in could define DOGE’s short-term fate.