Dogecoin (DOGE) has quietly been climbing the crypto ranks, showing resilience and steady gains despite occasional pullbacks. Over the past month, DOGE has risen roughly 17%, while three-month returns surpass 50%. Market participants are now closely watching a potential breakout above $0.28 that could trigger a 20% rally toward $0.32–$0.34. This surge is not fueled by hype but by a growing confidence among holders, on-chain metrics suggest.
Two critical on-chain metrics indicate a strengthening foundation for Dogecoin. The Spent Coins Age Band, which measures the movement of coins across different age groups, has fallen dramatically by 88%—from 486.7 million DOGE on September 16 to just 58.5 million on October 6. In simple terms, fewer DOGE coins are being moved from wallets, reflecting growing conviction among investors to hold their assets rather than sell.
At the same time, HODL Waves—which track the duration coins remain unmoved—show that both short- and long-term holders are increasing their share of the total supply. Wallets holding DOGE from one week to one month have risen from 3.16% to 5.65% month-over-month, while 1-year to 2-year wallets grew from 23.11% to 24.05%. This combination of new investors entering the market and long-term holders staying firm strengthens the underlying support for DOGE.
From a technical perspective, Dogecoin is currently trading inside an ascending channel, a bullish pattern characterized by higher lows and higher highs confined between two parallel trendlines. The upper boundary of the channel sits around $0.28, forming a critical resistance level. A sustained move above this level would confirm a breakout, potentially unlocking a 20% rally toward $0.32 and $0.34.
Analysts suggest that momentum could push DOGE even higher than these targets. If buyers maintain control and momentum persists, Fibonacci projections indicate a potential rally up to $0.38. On the downside, the $0.24 support level remains key. Any significant drop below $0.22 could invalidate the short-term bullish scenario.
The combination of falling spent coins and rising HODL waves paints a clear picture: Dogecoin holders are accumulating, not distributing. This steady accumulation reduces circulating supply in the market, which can amplify price movements once a breakout occurs.
Investor behavior also suggests a rare alignment between new and long-term holders. While new wallets are buying into the rally, veteran holders remain steadfast, creating a bullish base that could sustain price growth over the coming weeks.
Several technical indicators align with the bullish DOGE narrative. Moving averages show upward momentum, with short-term averages remaining above long-term averages, a sign of strong buying pressure. Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet entered overbought territory, suggesting that DOGE still has room to grow before reaching extreme valuations.
Volume metrics support the potential breakout. Recent trading volumes, while steady, indicate accumulating pressure beneath the $0.28 resistance. When combined with the strong holder behavior, these metrics suggest that a breakout could happen sooner than anticipated.
If Dogecoin successfully breaks out of its ascending channel, it could spark renewed interest in altcoins, as investors seek diversification beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. A breakout could also attract institutional attention, especially from traders looking to capitalize on short-term momentum in a historically volatile market.
Beyond price action, the breakout may enhance Dogecoin’s market perception. While often considered a meme coin, DOGE’s resilience and steady accumulation by holders could reinforce its credibility in the eyes of retail and institutional investors alike.
While the setup is bullish, investors should be aware of potential risks. Cryptocurrencies are inherently volatile, and DOGE is no exception. Sudden market shifts, regulatory news, or unexpected macroeconomic events could trigger price reversals.
Traders should also monitor the stablecoin supply. Last quarter, stablecoin issuance increased by $45 billion, creating a pool of “dry powder” that could further fuel bullish sentiment or be rotated into other crypto assets, impacting Dogecoin’s momentum.
Dogecoin’s price action, combined with on-chain metrics and technical indicators, points to a compelling bullish setup. The drop in spent coins and rising holder confidence suggest that DOGE is quietly building a foundation for a potential 20% breakout.
Traders and investors should watch the $0.28 resistance level closely. A sustained breakout could propel Dogecoin toward $0.32–$0.34, with the possibility of higher gains if momentum continues. While risk remains inherent in cryptocurrency markets, the alignment of new and long-term holders, along with positive technical signals, supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for DOGE in the coming weeks.
A finance graduate, Maheen Hernandez has been drawn to cryptocurrencies ever since Bitcoin first emerged in 2009. Nearly a decade later, Maheen is actively working to spread awareness about cryptocurrencies as well as their impact on the traditional currencies. Appreciate the work? Send a tip to: 0x75395Ea9a42d2742E8d0C798068DeF3590C5Faa5
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