Ethena (ENA) has shown strong performance in recent weeks, with bullish price action across multiple timeframes. In fact, over the past month, ENA has posted an impressive 18.64% gain, and in the last week, it surged by 26.05%. Despite this positive momentum, the asset is still facing a few obstacles that could impact its potential to hit a $2.44 target.

At press time, Ethena was trading within a bullish cup and handle pattern, which often signals the potential for a major rally. This classic formation is often a precursor to a breakout, but ENA needs to break past key resistance levels before any substantial move can happen.

Resistance and the Path to $2.44

ENA is currently facing resistance at the $1.32 level, a crucial price point that could determine whether the asset will surge towards its $2.44 target. Based on its historical price action, a similar rally to its previous one—where ENA surged by 597.86%—could lead to an 85.43% price increase, bringing the asset’s price closer to the $2.44 mark.

However, there is one major factor that is holding ENA back from realizing this potential—whale participation. Large holders, or whales, have yet to fully engage in the asset, and their absence is keeping ENA from fully capitalizing on its current momentum.

Whales Are Bullish but Inactive

According to IntoTheBlock, there’s a significant bullish sentiment among large holders of ENA, with 135 bullish whales compared to just 109 bearish whales. This 26-whale difference indicates that the large investor base is inclined to bid ENA higher. However, despite this optimism, whales have been relatively inactive in terms of accumulating ENA.

This lack of whale activity is evident in the declining large transaction volumes, which have dropped significantly. In the past 24 hours, only 58.97 million ENA—worth approximately $72.71 million—was traded. The lack of significant transactions among whales suggests that ENA still has untapped growth potential. If these large holders decide to enter the market more aggressively, ENA could experience a substantial rally.

Retail Traders Driving the Rally

Interestingly, the recent price surges in ENA have been largely driven by retail traders. This suggests that small investors are currently the primary force behind ENA’s upward movement. While this retail-driven rally has been positive for ENA’s price, it’s possible that a full-scale breakout will require the support of larger institutional investors.

If whales start to accumulate ENA more actively, the asset could see an explosive rally, potentially pushing it to the $2.44 target in the coming weeks. This is especially likely given the bullish sentiment among these large holders.

TVL Behavior: A Key Indicator

Another important factor to consider is ENA’s Total Value Locked (TVL), a key metric reflecting the amount of funds staked or locked in the Ethena protocol. Currently, ENA’s TVL stands at $5.921 billion, a level it has maintained since mid-December 2024. This relative stasis in TVL mirrors a similar pattern observed earlier in the year between April 13th and May 15th, which preceded a significant upward move in ENA’s price.

If this pattern proves to be fractal, it could signal that ENA is primed for a similar bullish breakout. A rise in TVL could attract more attention from both retail and institutional investors, further propelling the price upwards.

Conclusion: Will ENA Break Through?

Ethena is undoubtedly in a favorable position for growth, with a strong bullish chart pattern and a growing number of bullish whales. However, its progress towards the $2.44 target hinges on overcoming the $1.32 resistance and attracting more significant investment from whales. As of now, retail traders are driving the rally, but the involvement of large holders could significantly boost ENA’s price momentum.

If the TVL pattern proves to be a reliable indicator, ENA could soon experience a substantial breakout, unlocking its potential for significant gains. With the right market conditions and whale participation, Ethena could be poised for a major price surge in the near future.