Whale activity surrounding Ethena (ENA) has raised eyebrows this week, as several major holders chose to exit their positions at a loss—even as the altcoin shows signs it may be on the brink of a rebound. The moves have fueled debate across the crypto space, with many questioning whether these whales may have sold too soon, potentially missing out on an upcoming recovery rally.

As of May 20, ENA’s price stood at around $0.353, having dropped about 7.6% over the past 24 hours. However, this price still places it just above the boundary of a descending channel it has been stuck in for weeks. Technical analysts often view a breakout from such a pattern as a possible sign of a reversal. Yet, despite this potentially bullish signal, some whales have decided to lock in losses, seemingly anticipating further downside.

One notable whale, for instance, had accumulated approximately 15.47 million ENA tokens over the past three months at an average entry price of $0.404. This investor recently unstaked their remaining 12.16 million ENA—valued at $4.42 million—and transferred the funds to Binance for sale at $0.347 per token. When all was said and done, the whale had sold off 15.66 million tokens in total, resulting in a loss of nearly $817,000—roughly 13.1% of the position’s value.

A second whale made a similarly aggressive move by depositing $10.1 million USDC into the Hyperliquid platform to open long positions on ENA, PEPE, and NEAR. However, this attempt to capitalize on leveraged gains resulted in a $400,000 setback, as the positions closed at a loss. These back-to-back exits from major holders have led some analysts to speculate that fear is beginning to grip even the largest investors.

Interestingly, this wave of whale capitulation comes at a time when certain market indicators suggest a potential turnaround. While ENA’s trading volume surged by 85% in the last 24 hours, its price has yet to reflect strong buyer momentum. Still, the fact that the price remains above the upper boundary of the long-standing descending channel indicates that sellers have not fully regained control.

The chart pattern alone offers some hope to bullish traders. A decisive move above the $0.35 resistance level could confirm a breakout, potentially sending the token toward a short-term target of $0.50. A more extended move could even take ENA to $0.80, especially if broader market conditions remain favorable. However, if the price falls below the key $0.35 level, it would signal weakness and could pave the way for a drop toward support levels closer to $0.28.

Adding to the market’s uncertainty is the current state of the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator, which shows a flat histogram and intersecting MACD and signal lines near 0.0151. This configuration points to neutral momentum, meaning the market could break in either direction depending on the next wave of trading activity.

Meanwhile, activity surrounding Ethena’s native stablecoin, USDe, has added a new layer to the narrative. Over the past week, USDe’s circulating supply increased by $300 million—a major surge that mirrors a similar event in October 2024. Back then, the expansion of USDe’s supply coincided with ENA’s meteoric rise from $0.25 to an all-time high of $1.25. With conditions now appearing similar, some traders are speculating that ENA could be on the verge of another breakout phase, driven by renewed demand and optimism around Ethena Labs’ growth.

Whether that potential will materialize remains to be seen. For now, the actions of major ENA holders have created mixed signals. On one hand, their sell-offs suggest a loss of confidence. On the other, the timing of their exit—just as ENA flirts with a breakout—could prove premature if history repeats itself.

In the ever-volatile world of crypto, timing is everything. As Ethena hovers near a key support level with surging volume and a possible trend reversal in play, the coming days may determine whether these whales cashed out just in time—or walked away right before the real rally began.