Ethereum is showing signs of renewed strength, as its Total Value Locked (TVL) dominance has surged past 53%, marking its highest level since March. This jump in TVL dominance, paired with notable on-chain metrics and whale activity, is stirring speculation that ETH could be on the verge of a significant price rally. While short-term indicators remain mixed, the broader trend suggests that Ethereum may be entering a phase of long-term accumulation and potential upward momentum.

Currently, Ethereum is trading at $2,362.31, up by 2.62% in the last 24 hours. The price move is not an isolated development. Large-scale transactions by whales are signaling a shift in sentiment. Over 23,800 ETH was recently transferred to Coinbase Institutional, while more than 58,000 ETH moved between unidentified wallets. These kinds of transactions are often interpreted as institutional accumulation, especially when the assets are not immediately sold on the open market. The scale of these movements implies growing confidence in Ethereum’s long-term prospects.

Reinforcing this bullish outlook is the behavior of Ethereum holders on centralized exchanges. In the past 24 hours alone, Ethereum’s exchange reserves declined by 1.1%, settling at 19.25 million ETH. Netflows dropped by 8.26%, indicating that 213,232 ETH moved out of exchanges. When investors withdraw their assets into self-custody, it typically reduces selling pressure and suggests that they are holding for the long term. This creates a more favorable environment for upward price movement, assuming demand remains steady or rises.

Another strong signal is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Long/Short Difference, which has dropped to -40.91%. This level, among the lowest in recent months, historically aligns with accumulation zones or early phases of a recovery. A negative MVRV implies that recent buyers are holding coins at a loss, and such conditions often precede a rebound as value investors move in to capitalize on discounted prices.

In terms of market behavior, the number of short-term Ethereum holders has decreased. The 0d–1d HODL Wave, which tracks coins moved within a day, has fallen to 0.114. This decline indicates that fewer coins are being flipped quickly and that speculative trading has slowed. While this can reduce immediate buying volume, it also tends to stabilize price action by minimizing abrupt swings driven by speculative exits. The data suggests that current holders are more conviction-driven and focused on long-term value.

Despite these positive signs, not all metrics are aligned. The rate at which Ethereum is being burned has slowed. Over the past week, only 42.75% of transaction fees were burned, compared to a longer-term average of 35.03%. While the burn rate is still healthy, the drop hints at reduced on-chain activity, which could temper Ethereum’s deflationary effect in the near term. A lower burn rate typically means slower token supply reduction, potentially impacting long-term price dynamics unless offset by increased usage or investor demand.

However, Ethereum’s technical indicators present a strong case for a trend reversal. The asset recently broke out of a long-standing descending trendline, confirming a shift from bearish to bullish structure. The breakout was accompanied by a swift rally toward $2,365, with momentum supported by a high Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 81.90. Though this RSI suggests Ethereum is overbought in the short term, the broader momentum indicates that the rally could sustain if key support levels hold—specifically the $1,761.30 level. Should price remain above this threshold, the next target zone lies around $2,526.54.

In conclusion, Ethereum appears to be transitioning from a consolidation phase into the early stages of a potential breakout. The surge in TVL dominance, institutional accumulation, declining exchange reserves, and a confirmed breakout structure all point to improving market sentiment. While the slowing burn rate and reduced short-term holder activity may limit immediate price spikes, they also suggest a maturing market environment less prone to volatility. If current trends persist and capital inflows continue, Ethereum may be setting the foundation for a sustained rally over the coming months.