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Alex Thorn didn’t mince words. Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research dropped his estimated probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 60% to 50% on June 26 — and the reason wasn’t a policy fight. It was the calendar.
The Senate adjourned until July 13. That leaves a shrinking window before the August recess, and Thorn’s math is pretty straightforward: if the chamber can’t commit to a floor vote before lawmakers scatter for the summer, the bill probably slips to September. September means midterm election season. And midterm election season is basically where complex bipartisan legislation goes to die. The Banking and Agriculture Committees still haven’t published a merged bill text — that step has to happen before floor debate can even start. Without it by early July, another downgrade seems likely.
It’s the second cut in weeks.
Back in April, Thorn had the odds at roughly 50%. They spiked to 75% in May, then got trimmed. Now they’re back where April left them, which is not a great trajectory for a bill the digital asset industry has been watching closely for months. Prediction market traders on Polymarket are even more bearish — they’ve got passage odds at 41%, a meaningful gap below Galaxy’s estimate. Whether that gap reflects better information or just market noise is unclear.
60 Votes, Competing Bills, and an Ethics Fight
The CLARITY Act needs 60 Senate votes. That’s the filibuster threshold, and it means real bipartisan buy-in — not just a handful of crossover votes. Right now, the bill is competing for floor time against FISA legislation and the National Defense Authorization Act, both of which tend to crowd out anything that isn’t a national security priority. Crypto market structure, however important to the industry, isn’t going to jump that queue easily.
And there’s another problem. Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker have made clear they want enforceable ethics rules around government officials’ crypto holdings baked into the bill before they back it. A key ethics amendment failed in committee, and that unresolved fight is probably costing votes. It’s not a fringe concern — it’s the kind of thing that can quietly sink bipartisan support when leadership is trying to whip a 60-vote coalition.
So the bill’s core policy framework isn’t really the sticking point. The SEC and CFTC jurisdictional split, the new compliance requirements for digital asset intermediaries — that stuff has broad conceptual support. The problem is time, logistics, and a Senate that has a lot of other things on its plate.
What Senator Lummis Said — and What It Means
Senator Cynthia Lummis has been direct about the stakes. Per Thorn’s analysis, Lummis warned that failing to pass the Act in 2026 could push market structure legislation as far out as 2030. That’s not hyperbole — it’s a function of how the chamber’s composition might shift after November elections, potentially reshaping which bills get oxygen and which don’t.
For the odds to move back above 60%, Thorn’s framework basically needs two things to happen fast: a unified Senate text published by early July, and a commitment from Senate leadership to schedule a vote before the recess. Both. Not one or the other.
That’s a tight ask.
What’s at Stake for Digital Asset Markets
For institutional players in the digital asset space, every week without the CLARITY Act is another week of regulatory fog. The bill’s core promise — drawing a clear line between SEC and CFTC jurisdiction — is the thing exchanges, token issuers, and intermediaries have been waiting on. Without it, compliance teams are basically guessing, and strategic planning gets murky fast.
Prediction markets peaked at 82% confidence back in February. They’re at 41% now. That’s a 41-point collapse in roughly four months, and it tracks with how the Senate schedule has tightened. Whether Galaxy’s 50% holds as a more calibrated read or whether it converges toward Polymarket’s bleaker number probably depends on what happens in the next two weeks.
The merged Senate text is the tell. If it drops by mid-July, the odds probably stabilize or recover. If it doesn’t, Thorn has already signaled another downgrade is on the table.
Senators Gallego and Booker still haven’t said they’re satisfied on the ethics provisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the CLARITY Act actually do?
The CLARITY Act aims to draw clear jurisdictional lines between the SEC and CFTC over digital assets and introduce new compliance requirements for digital commodity intermediaries.
Why did Galaxy Digital cut the CLARITY Act’s passage odds?
Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn cut the odds from 60% to 50% on June 26 because of a narrowing Senate calendar and competition for legislative floor time — not because of unresolved policy disagreements.
What do Polymarket traders think about the CLARITY Act passing?
As of late June, Polymarket traders put the odds of passage at 41%, notably lower than Galaxy Digital’s 50% estimate.
