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Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) has been trading in a relatively tight range over the past few weeks, attracting attention from traders and analysts. On Monday, HBAR was priced at $0.2400, marking an 80% increase from its lowest level this year, though still 23% below its year-to-date high of $0.3050. This consolidation phase has investors closely monitoring technical and fundamental signals to determine the next potential move for the cryptocurrency.
Technical analysis indicates that HBAR could be gearing up for a notable price surge. On the daily chart, the coin has formed a classic bullish flag pattern. This formation consists of a sharp vertical rise followed by a downward-sloping channel, resembling a hoisted flag. The breakout from this channel is often seen as a continuation pattern, suggesting that Hedera could see further gains once it moves beyond the upper boundary of the flag.
Supporting this bullish outlook, HBAR recently retested key support levels at $0.2298 and the double-bottom neckline at $0.1260, forming a break-and-retest pattern—a common signal for price continuation. Additionally, the cryptocurrency remains above its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Ichimoku cloud, reinforcing technical optimism for further upward movement.
Elliot Wave theory offers further confirmation of potential bullish momentum. HBAR is currently in the second phase of the Elliot Wave cycle, which typically retraces between 50% and 61.8% of the initial surge. In this case, HBAR has retraced around 61.8%, setting the stage for the third phase. Historically, the third wave is the longest and most powerful, and it could propel HBAR toward the key resistance level at $0.40—approximately 72% above its current price. This target also aligns with the coin’s peak earlier this year in January.
Beyond technical indicators, fundamental developments could fuel HBAR’s growth. The main bullish driver is the potential approval of spot HBAR ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Canary and Grayscale have filed for these ETFs, with a decision expected in November. Approval would allow American investors to gain exposure to HBAR without managing private security keys, potentially unlocking significant institutional and retail demand.
ETF adoption has historically had a substantial impact on crypto prices. For instance, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen inflows exceeding $57 billion, highlighting strong appetite for regulated investment products. If HBAR ETFs gain approval, it could mirror this institutional enthusiasm, providing further support to Hedera’s price.
Another positive fundamental development is Hedera’s selection as the blockchain provider for the upcoming Wyoming stablecoin project. Hedera’s fast transaction speed and high throughput likely contributed to this decision. Such partnerships not only validate the network’s technological capabilities but also enhance its long-term use case, potentially boosting investor confidence in HBAR.
Despite bullish technicals and promising fundamentals, Hedera faces some headwinds. Its decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem remains underdeveloped, with total value locked (TVL) stagnant at $240 million. This figure is significantly smaller than that of other emerging blockchains. Additionally, Hedera’s stablecoin supply has shown signs of weakness, dropping by approximately $79 million in the past seven days to just $69 million. These factors could limit short-term upside unless there is renewed growth in on-chain activity and liquidity.
In conclusion, HBAR’s combination of technical strength and favorable fundamental catalysts presents a compelling case for further gains. The bullish flag formation, break-and-retest support pattern, and Elliot Wave setup suggest that the coin could target $0.40 in the near term. Meanwhile, ETF approval and partnerships like the Wyoming stablecoin project provide institutional and regulatory validation. However, investors should remain aware of potential challenges, including the slow growth of Hedera’s DeFi ecosystem and declining stablecoin supply. Overall, HBAR appears poised for a bullish move, but cautious monitoring of both on-chain metrics and market sentiment is essential.
