JPMorgan models Bitcoin at $385,500 in 10-year bull case

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has projected that Bitcoin could potentially climb to a price of $385,500 within a 10-year bull case scenario, according to the details found in the firm’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions which were released on Oct. 19. While the bullish outlook is aggressive, the base case scenario models a more moderate price of $215,300, whereas a bearish scenario envisions the asset declining further to $25,300.

Base Case Exceeds Traditional Assets

The report provides a detailed outline of three distinct scenarios regarding the performance of Bitcoin over the coming decade. In the base case, the firm assumes compound annual returns of 10%, calculating this from a reference price of $83,000, which implies a final value of approximately $215,300 by the year 2037. The bullish scenario is more optimistic, projecting annualized returns of 16.6% to reach a price target of $385,500. Conversely, the bearish case assumes that the asset will suffer yearly losses of 11.2%, which would reduce the value of the asset to roughly $25,300.

These specific figures represent a significant departure from the historical asset class assumptions previously held by the firm. The projected 10% annual return for Bitcoin in the base case actually exceeds the 7.5% assumption J.P. Morgan holds for US large-cap stocks, and it also surpasses the 5.5% annual return projected for gold. Despite this higher potential for return, the firm estimates that Bitcoin’s annualized volatility remains at 55%, a figure that is more than three times the 18% projected volatility for American equities.

The Bitcoin analysis was authored by digital asset strategist Dennis Cristallo and portfolio manager Sheena Shah. They noted within the report that the firm considers it to be premature to adopt a definitive 10-year Bitcoin forecast for the purposes of strategic portfolio construction. Instead, these estimates are presented as potential outcomes that could occur under different market conditions. The authors maintained that the usefulness of Bitcoin in diversified portfolios is restricted at this time due to unstable correlations and extreme volatility.

Monetary Supply and Gold Allocation Drive Model

The framework used for forecasting relies heavily on the competition with gold and the expansion of monetary supply. Specifically, the model assigns 65% of its weighting to the growth of Bitcoin’s supply relative to the global money supply expansion and the US dollar. Another 30% of the weighting reflects the potential for Bitcoin to attract investment that is traditionally allocated to gold. Only 5% is assigned to the adoption of the Bitcoin network, a factor which produces a -3.2% annualized return under the base scenario.

Both the gold allocation and monetary supply models generate annualized returns of 10.7%. This suggests that J.P. Morgan expects the investment appeal of Bitcoin to depend primarily on its ability to compete with established stores of wealth and on general monetary conditions. The firm further assumes that Bitcoin will receive very little direct benefit from the expansion of tokenized assets that operate on other blockchains, which limits the contribution of broader crypto infrastructure adoption to the valuation model.

J.P. Morgan describes Bitcoin as a hedge against monetary easing and a speculative asset. The report observes that the price of Bitcoin generally responds to global liquidity conditions in a manner similar to other high-risk investments. However, the firm challenges the common expectation that concerns regarding currency debasement will automatically drive investors toward cryptocurrencies, as the authors argue that unstable correlations and volatility complicate that specific investment thesis.

The analysis of the standalone portfolio estimates that the historical correlation between Bitcoin and US large-cap equities is 0.33, while its correlation with gold is estimated at 0.10. The firm considers these specific relationships to be too unpredictable to support a dependable role in diversification. Shah and Cristallo identified certain conditions that could strengthen the suitability of Bitcoin for strategic investment, including deeper liquidity, more consistent correlations, declining volatility, and improved price discovery.

Dimon’s Stance and Institutional Shift

The release of this analysis marks a significant expansion of the cryptocurrency activities at J.P. Morgan, occurring despite years of public criticism from Chief Executive Jamie Dimon. Dimon had previously dismissed Bitcoin as a fraud and questioned the economic value of the asset, repeatedly citing regulatory risks, criminal activity, and speculative trading in his criticisms.

During the investor day held by the bank in May 2025, Dimon confirmed that J.P. Morgan would allow its clients to buy Bitcoin. The bank will reflect those holdings on account statements, although it initially avoided providing custody services. “I am not a fan of it,” Dimon said at the time, though he defended the freedom of clients to invest in Bitcoin despite his own personal objections.

Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, commented on the contrast between the new projections and the past criticism from Dimon. He wrote on X: “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you’ll be the best-performing asset of the next decade.”

The expanding engagement of the bank reflects a rising demand from customers for exposure to cryptocurrency. This shift is also being driven by supporting infrastructure and more established investment products. The firm has not provided a specific timeline for when it might integrate Bitcoin into its core strategic asset allocation models beyond the current analysis of scenarios.