Jupiter’s ambitious $100 million buyback program was expected to provide a significant boost to the price of its native token, JUP. However, after several months in action and $19 million already spent, the token’s market performance remains underwhelming. Despite ongoing support from the buyback initiative, JUP has lost momentum, dropping by roughly 15% from the average buyback price. As investors search for answers, it’s becoming clear that broader market dynamics and internal supply factors may be overwhelming the program’s impact.

The buyback plan, introduced in February 2025, was intended to support JUP’s value by removing tokens from circulation. At face value, such a large-scale buyback — totaling $100 million annually — should have bolstered investor confidence and price stability. But according to a report from Pine Analytics, this hasn’t been the case. As of early May, only $19 million worth of JUP had been repurchased, and the token has since dropped well below the average buyback price of $0.50, now trading closer to $0.41.

So what’s behind JUP’s sluggish response?

Analysts point to two primary factors: reduced activity on Solana’s decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and token dilution. Pine Analytics highlights that the first quarter of 2025 saw a notable slowdown in Solana’s DEX on-chain activity, affecting many tokens, including JUP. The lack of network-wide momentum has created a challenging environment for any meaningful rally.

Adding to the headwinds is Jupiter’s own token supply schedule. Back in January, the project unlocked 700 million JUP tokens — equivalent to 7% of the total supply — as part of its highly publicized “Jupuary” airdrop. This sudden increase in circulating tokens likely contributed to downward pressure on the price, offsetting any potential gains from the buyback program.

The dilution risk isn’t over, either. To date, around 27% of JUP’s total supply has been unlocked, while over 5 billion tokens remain locked. When these are eventually released into the market, further downward price pressure is likely unless demand significantly increases. This looming oversupply is a concern for both traders and long-term holders alike.

Still, there may be early signs of modest accumulation. According to data from CoinGlass, more than $4 million worth of JUP was withdrawn from exchanges in the first week of May — a move often interpreted as a signal that investors are preparing to hold rather than sell. Though not a definitive bullish indicator, it suggests that some buyers still have confidence in the token’s long-term potential.

However, not all large investors share the same outlook. Data from Hyblock reveals that whales — large holders who often influence short-term price trends — have been reducing their JUP exposure. This coincided with the token’s slide from $0.50 to $0.41. Unless these high-cap investors re-enter the market, sustained upside may remain elusive.

Technical indicators also paint a cautious picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum gauge, remains below 50 — a level typically associated with bearish conditions. For JUP to mount a meaningful recovery, the RSI would need to climb back above 50, indicating renewed buying pressure.

For now, the $0.41 level serves as a critical short-term support zone. If this area holds and accumulation continues, JUP may find a foothold for a potential reversal. However, any upward movement will likely be gradual, requiring a combination of improved market conditions, reduced sell pressure, and renewed investor sentiment.

In conclusion, Jupiter’s $19 million buyback program, while ambitious, hasn’t yet delivered the price support that many investors had hoped for. External market weakness, internal dilution, and fading whale interest have all contributed to JUP’s underperformance. While some signs of accumulation have emerged, a sustained recovery will depend on whether broader conditions improve and whether Jupiter can navigate its looming token unlocks without further eroding value.