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As the crypto market continues to develop, the price of XRP has fluctuated within a tight range, struggling to break past key resistance levels. Although Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced significant price movements, with Bitcoin surpassing the $100,000 mark and Ethereum breaching $2,400, XRP has yet to achieve similar price growth. Despite the recent upward movement in XRP’s price, which peaked at $2.42 before retreating to $2.36, the general sentiment among investors remains cautious. A pseudonymous XRP advocate, Butterfly, has outlined five potential steps that could fuel a sustained XRP price rally. However, some of these ideas may be more speculative than others.
BlackRock Filing for an XRP ETF
One of the key points raised by Butterfly is the potential for BlackRock to file for a spot XRP ETF, following the success the firm has experienced with its Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. These ETFs have attracted billions of dollars in investments, which has raised speculation about BlackRock’s future interest in XRP. While this idea has gained attention, there has been no indication that BlackRock plans to file for an XRP ETF. Instead, the firm has focused its efforts on expanding its Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Despite this, rumors persist, especially after BlackRock’s meeting with the SEC regarding ETF approval standards. Some experts, like Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, suggest that BlackRock could file for XRP and Solana ETFs in the near future. If such an ETF were approved, it could significantly boost investor confidence and trigger a surge in XRP’s price.
XRP Futures Rollout
Butterfly’s second point is more grounded in reality, involving the rollout of XRP futures trading. Coinbase has already introduced XRP futures as of April 2025, and the CME Group is set to follow suit later in May. The introduction of XRP futures is a significant development, as it brings additional liquidity to the market and may attract institutional investors. Futures trading allows more sophisticated investors to hedge and speculate on the price of XRP, which could increase market stability and attract more capital into the asset. Industry experts generally view futures trading as a positive development that could lead to a more mature XRP market.
Interest Rate Cuts
The third point on Butterfly’s list involves potential interest rate cuts by the U.S. Treasury, which she suggests would support XRP’s price. However, this point contains an error, as interest rate decisions are made by the Federal Reserve, not the U.S. Treasury. While there is speculation that the Federal Reserve may lower rates later this year, particularly in July, no concrete action has been taken yet. Should rate cuts occur, they could benefit risk assets like cryptocurrencies, as lower interest rates typically reduce the appeal of traditional interest-bearing investments. However, this scenario remains speculative, and it is unclear whether it will have a significant impact on XRP’s price in the short term.
XRP ETF Approval and ISO Conversion
Another point raised by Butterfly is the approval of multiple spot XRP ETFs. While it is true that several firms, including Grayscale, ProShares, and WisdomTree, have filed applications for XRP ETFs with the SEC, none of these applications have been approved yet. The SEC has extended the review period for several of these applications, with the final decisions likely to stretch into late 2025. The recent appointment of a more crypto-friendly SEC chair has increased optimism about the approval of crypto ETFs, but no firm timeline exists. Therefore, while the approval of an XRP ETF could provide a significant catalyst for XRP’s price, it remains uncertain when this will occur.
The final point raised by Butterfly involves an “ISO conversion” event scheduled for November. However, this claim is misleading. ISO 20022 is a global messaging standard for financial institutions, and while Ripple’s systems are compliant with this standard, there is no specific “conversion event” scheduled for XRP. This point appears to be based on a misunderstanding of the technicalities surrounding Ripple’s compliance with ISO 20022.
In conclusion, while Butterfly’s five steps provide an interesting roadmap for a potential XRP price boom, not all of these steps are grounded in current market realities. The potential for a BlackRock XRP ETF remains speculative, and while the rollout of XRP futures is already underway, other developments such as interest rate cuts and ETF approvals are uncertain. The optimism surrounding XRP’s future remains, but much depends on external factors, such as regulatory decisions and broader market conditions.
