Ondo (ONDO) surged nearly 20% on Wednesday, breaking out of a prolonged downtrend and catching the attention of crypto investors. After spending the past two months trapped in a descending channel, ONDO’s sharp upward move brought new momentum to a token that had been struggling to find direction. However, while the rally was certainly eye-catching, analysts caution that it may be too soon to call it a full bullish reversal — especially with a key resistance level still looming overhead.

ONDO’s breakout was significant not only because of the price movement, but also due to the surge in trading volume. The spike in volume indicates renewed interest from buyers and hints at increasing market confidence. Over the past several weeks, the token had been trading lower inside a tight range, with little activity to suggest a turnaround was imminent. Wednesday’s move changed that narrative — at least for now.

Despite the bullish excitement, ONDO’s daily chart remains technically bearish. The most important level to watch is $0.915, which corresponds to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous rally. This price point acts as a strong resistance and represents the lower high that ONDO needs to break through in order to flip the market structure to bullish. Until this level is cleared decisively, technical analysts suggest the breakout could lose steam.

Supporting this cautious stance is the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, which has yet to make a new higher high compared to late March. OBV tracks cumulative volume flow and helps identify whether buying pressure is strengthening or weakening. The lack of a clear OBV breakout suggests that while the price jumped, the underlying demand may not be strong enough to sustain long-term gains — at least not yet. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at a neutral level of 50, showing no clear momentum in either direction.

On the flip side, on-chain metrics are signaling early signs of accumulation, which could support future bullish price action. According to data from IntoTheBlock, ONDO has nearby support levels at $0.815 and $0.791 — both of which are now above the previously resistant upper boundary of the descending channel. A retest of these zones could provide a solid base for the next upward move if the broader market cooperates.

Further supporting a bullish outlook, data from Santiment shows that daily active addresses — which had dropped sharply in mid-March — are starting to rise again. This increase in network activity suggests renewed interest and potential growth in user engagement. Meanwhile, the 90-day Mean Coin Age (MCA) has been steadily trending upward since January, indicating that holders are increasingly keeping their tokens rather than moving or selling them. This is a classic sign of accumulation.

Another important metric, the 90-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, remains in negative territory. This means most short- to mid-term holders are currently at a loss. While that may sound bearish, it often signals a price bottom, as holders are less likely to sell at a loss, creating a favorable setup for a rebound.

While ONDO’s recent surge and improving on-chain signals are promising, traders and investors should keep a close eye on how the price behaves near the $0.915 resistance. A clean breakout and sustained move above this level would likely confirm a trend reversal. However, if the token is rejected again, it could re-enter a consolidation phase or pull back toward support.

In conclusion, ONDO’s 20% rally has injected fresh optimism into its outlook, but the real test lies just ahead. Whether it can clear resistance and build on this breakout will determine if this is the start of a true reversal — or just a short-lived spike.