Q3 ETF inflows outpaced mining before $430 million exit

US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $430 million on Nov. 5, per Farside Investors. This spike contrasts with Q3 data from 21Shares released Nov. 2, which showed ETF buyers adding 79,800 BTC against 41,300 BTC newly mined.

Concentrated Buying Windows

The 21Shares report, covering through Sept. 30, shows ETF accumulation nearly doubled mining output. However, buying was concentrated: Aug. 17-27 and Sept. 21-25 accounted for 91% of BTC inflows. Other days contributed minimally.

This suggests fund demand is inconsistent. For those tracking supply, the gaps between these windows are critical. New issuance is only one factor; coins from existing investors also enter circulation. Thus, purchases exceeding mining output do not define the total supply buyers must absorb.

Long-Term Holder Balance Decline

Q3 saw a 248,000 BTC reduction in long-term-holder balances, according to 21Shares. This decline far exceeds quarterly mining output, adding existing holdings to the scarcity debate. However, this figure reflects a net balance change, not a total of executed market sales.

ETF ownership and age-based classifications overlap. Subtracting this decline from ETF purchases, or adding it to issuance, would imply a precision the data lacks. The link remains complex, as entities may hold assets in both ETFs and private wallets.

Glassnode Metric Provides Recent Check

Glassnode’s long-term-holder position metric provides a recent directional check. A Nov. 6 capture at 10:39 UTC showed approximately negative 151,885 BTC. The page labeled this “24 hours ago,” a relative term that does not specify a trading session.

The metric tracks the rolling 30-day change in cohort supply. Coins enter the group as they age and leave when spent. A negative reading means spending outweighs maturation, not that the amount was sold in one day. Glassnode uses an entity’s averaged purchasing date, weighted around 155 days, and excludes exchange-wallet supply. Because the rolling window differs from Q3, it cannot be used to claim distribution has accelerated or slowed.