More than $4.1 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire today, and the crypto market is on edge. With both major cryptocurrencies already facing recent downward pressure, traders are closely watching how this expiration will influence price movements going into the weekend.

Options expirations are known for causing sudden and often unpredictable market shifts. With billions of dollars on the line, today’s event could either add fuel to the sell-off a relief rally. Here’s everything you need to know about this high-stakes moment for crypto markets.

Billions in BTC and ETH Options Set to Expire

According to data from Deribit, the leading crypto options exchange, a total of $4.11 billion in BTC and ETH options contracts will expire today. Of this, Bitcoin options account for approximately $3.5 billion, while Ethereum options total $565 million.

For Bitcoin, a whopping 33,972 contracts are reaching expiration—an increase from the 27,959 contracts that expired just a week ago. Ethereum’s numbers are slightly down week-over-week, with 224,509 contracts expiring today compared to 246,849 last week.

These options expirations are more than just numbers. They represent trader expectations, hedges, and speculation — and when they close, they often reset the playing field for market prices.

What the Data Says: Put-to-Call Ratios and Max Pain

The sentiment behind these contracts provides key insight into how traders are positioning themselves.

For Bitcoin:

• Put-to-call ratio: 1.00

• Max pain level: $105,000

A 1.00 put-to-call ratio indicates a perfectly balanced outlook. Traders are equally split between bearish puts and bullish calls. This neutrality suggests a high degree of uncertainty, aligning with recent sideways Bitcoin price action and low volatility. The $105,000 max pain level—well above current BTC prices—shows where traders stand to lose the most if prices don’t move in their favor.

Ethereum’s data paints a different picture:

• Put-to-call ratio: 0.69

• Max pain level: $2,600

A lower ratio under 1.0 means more traders are betting on price gains than declines. The current price of Ethereum sits around $2,506, below the max pain level, implying that the market may try to drift upward toward that $2,600 level as expiration approaches.

What Is Max Pain and Why It Matters

The concept of “max pain” refers to the price at which the largest number of options expire worthless. It’s often used by traders as a target because it’s where option sellers—typically institutions—stand to gain the most.

During expiration periods like today’s, it’s common for prices to be “magnetized” toward the max pain point, creating temporary volatility. Traders and algorithms sometimes act in ways that influence prices in this direction, whether intentionally or simply through market dynamics.

Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Optimism

Despite the looming expiration event, many traders are not overly concerned about long-term impacts.

“BTC shows more balanced positioning near max pain, while ETH flows tilt bullish with calls dominating up the curve. How will the market respond this time?” analysts at Deribit noted.

This balanced positioning means that, while short-term volatility is likely, a violent move in either direction isn’t guaranteed. It also shows a market still trying to find direction amid larger macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Fed Signals and Global Tensions Add to Uncertainty

Crypto markets don’t exist in a vacuum. Recent statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have added more uncertainty to the mix. In his latest FOMC address, Powell signaled continued caution regarding rate cuts, keeping risk-on assets like crypto in a fragile position.

At the same time, geopolitical risks are heating up. Reports of growing U.S. involvement in the Middle East, particularly tensions with Iran, have influenced traders to adopt defensive strategies.

According to Greeks.live, a platform tracking derivatives market trends, traders are preparing for potential downside in July while remaining hopeful for a recovery in Q4.

“Traders are running negative delta for July positions while planning to add positive deltas for Q4,” Greeks.live posted.

This indicates a bearish short-term outlook, with many traders buying puts (bearish options) to hedge their portfolios against sudden drops. However, their long-term setups still suggest a belief that the market could recover in the second half of the year.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin and Ethereum?

As of today, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices remain under pressure. With both trading below their respective max pain levels, the path forward is uncertain. However, historical patterns show that options expirations often lead to market stabilization shortly after.

If prices do gravitate toward the max pain levels—$105,000 for BTC and $2,600 for ETH—it could signal short-term recoveries. Alternatively, failure to hold current levels may indicate deeper consolidation ahead.

Either way, traders are advised to stay cautious.

Final Thoughts

The expiration of over $4 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options is a major event that could influence market behavior in the days ahead. While short-term volatility is expected, it’s unlikely to set the tone for the rest of the year.

The key takeaway? Traders are navigating a tightrope of uncertainty—between Fed policy, global conflicts, and technical indicators—but are still holding onto hope for a rebound by Q4.

As always in crypto, the only certainty is uncertainty. Stay informed, stay alert, and watch how today’s expiration ripples through the weekend.